A Okie look at all thing Politics, eCampaign, New Media and Warfare - - - I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. - John Adams
While China prominently proclaims the peaceful intentions behind its growing military buildup, within the military the rhetoric is far more aggressive.
The United States is the main foe among officers, and they continue to churn out books and articles about how America can be defeated. Lesser foes include Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam and South Korea. But it's understood, among Chinese officers, that if the mighty Americans can be brought to heel, all other local powers will become much easier to handle.
Meanwhile, the winds of political change can be detected within China. A group of 23 retired senior government officials and academics openly called for more democracy in China, and authoritarian rule. These old guys can get away with this kind of open talk because they are old, retired, and still have many friends within the government. The real target of the letter was the hard-liners in the government who pay more attention to maintaining the communist police state, than to improving the well-being of the average Chinese. The hard-liners used to include a lot of officials who still believed in communism, but there are few of those left, and not enough of them for anyone to bother with anymore.
The hard-liners tend to ally themselves with corrupt officials (nearly everyone in the ruling elite is at least a little dirty) to maintain the police state. But many senior officials actually back more democracy, and accountability to the people.
The United States sees China as having a natural interest in protecting its access to the sea (for importing raw materials and exporting manufactured goods). This justifies the large amounts of money the Chinese are pouring into building up their fleet. This is very new for China, which has not been a major naval power for over 600 years. What alarms the Americans is how the U.S. is being demonized by the Chinese military leadership.
Chinese politicians speak in more friendly terms, while tolerating the bellicose attitudes of their generals and admirals. The politicians refrain from reining in the aggressive attitudes of their military commanders. China experts counsel that the rants from the military are mainly to build morale within the ranks, and make it easier for the politicians to reduce corruption in the armed forces. This corruption is an old, old problem in China.
It's been reduced in the last two decades, but is still there, in a big way. By whipping up this fervor for dealing with a major war, it becomes unpatriotic (for many, but not all, officers) to steal and connive. But to outsiders, it looks like the Chinese are preparing for something ominous. This is reinforced by the increasingly aggressive Chinese attitudes towards disputes with its neighbors over uninhabited islands (often just rock outcroppings only visible at low tide). Outright possession of these islets gives the owner possession of nearby oil or natural gas deposits. Something worth fighting for, and that's what worries neighbors when it comes to China's growing naval strength.
South Korean and Australian military officials believe China has recently made a major effort to steal secret data from them via the Internet. The hacking attacks try hard to hide their origins, but better forensic tools make it easier to find and follow tracks. The Chinese Internet based espionage efforts have been growing more frequent and aggressive over the last decade. As the evidence piles up, China is having a more difficult time trying to hide behind blanket denials.
China is aggressively offering inexpensive weapons and military training services to African nations. This would give China more influence within African armed forces, and better knowledge of what makes them tick. This can be useful when there are embarrassing incidents. Recently, in Zambia, two Chinese mine officials opened fire with assault rifles, when confronted by workers angry about the way they were mistreated. Two workers were wounded and the rest dispersed. The Zambian government wants to prosecute the two Chinese gunmen, while China wants to avoid any damage to Chinese economic interests in Zambia and Africa. China has also been approaching Western nations for greater military cooperation. The latest targets were Poland and Italy.
Not wanting to incur the wrath of China, Vietnam made it clear that it will not lease Cam Rahn Bay to Russia, or any other foreigners. From 1979-2002, Russia did lease access, but left in a dispute over how much they should pay. Russia recently offered to return, and China was not pleased. Despite centuries of tension, China is currently a major trading partner with neighboring Vietnam. While Vietnam has been deferential to China, most other neighbors of China (including India) are increasingly cooperating in efforts to form a de facto military and political alliance against China. If this ever becomes a formal alliance (an eastern NATO, against the eastern superpower), China will not be pleased.
The U.S. has approached China about negotiating who would be allowed to do what in North Korea once the current North Korean government collapsed. Everyone in the region agrees that it's not a matter of if, but when, the North Korean dictatorship will collapse. South Korea considers it their responsibility to move in and clean up the mess. China has openly discussed other ideas, not involving South Korea. The proposed U.S. talks would seek to work out an arrangement that would not risk another major war in the area.
The government made a major effort to keep the recent news of imprisoned 1989 demonstration leader Liu Xiaobo winning the Nobel Peace Prize. Censors worked overtime to keep the news off all forms of media (especially cell phones and the Internet). It got through anyway, and the extent of the censorship effort made the government look weak and afraid of what the 1989 pro-democracy demonstrations represented.
In the northwest, China continues to have problems with its Moslem minority. As mainstream (Han) Chinese continue to move into these remote areas, the locals, who are often Moslem, increasingly respond with violence. Last month, for example, over a thousand northwestern Moslems (not Turkic Uighurs, but Hui, a catchall term for dozens of Moslem ethnic groups in the area) rioted and tried to destroy a newly built (by Han, largely for Han) nightclub. The locals objected to the booze and prostitution such places featured.
China suspended military exchanges with the United States, threatened unprecedented sanctions against American defense companies and warned Saturday that cooperation would suffer after Washington announced $6.4 billion in planned arms sales to Taiwan.
The response to Friday's U.S. announcement, while not entirely unexpected, was swift and indicated that China plans to put up a greater challenge than usual as it deals with the most sensitive topic in U.S.-China relations.
"This is the strongest reaction we've seen so far in recent years," said Stephanie T. Kleine-Ahlbrandt, northeast Asia project director for the International Crisis Group. "China is really looking to see what kind of reaction it's going to receive from Obama on this."
China's Defense Ministry said the arms sales to self-governing Taiwan, which the mainland claims as its own, cause "severe harm" to overall U.S.-China cooperation, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported. Vice ministerial-level talks on arms control and strategic security were postponed.
The warning comes as the U.S. seeks Beijing's help on issues including the global financial crisis and nuclear standoffs in North Korea and Iran. Tensions were already high after recent U.S. comments on Internet freedom and a dispute between Google and China, as well as President Barack Obama's plan to meet with Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama this year.
China's Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei told U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman that the sales of Black Hawk helicopters, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles and other weapons to Taiwan would "cause consequences that both sides are unwilling to see," a ministry statement said.
The Foreign Ministry also threatened sanctions against U.S. companies involved in the arms sales, which hasn't happened in past sales to Taiwan.
"Our action regarding Taiwan reinforces our commitment to stability in the region," U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Saturday. "We know China has a different view. Given our broad relationship with China, we will manage this issue as we have in the past."
The United States is Taiwan's most important ally and largest arms supplier, and it's bound by law to ensure the island is able to respond to Chinese threats.
China responds angrily to any proposed arms sales, however, and it also cut off military ties with the U.S. in 2008 after the former Bush administration announced a multibillion-dollar arms sale to Taiwan.
A similar cutoff of military ties was expected this time, but it comes as Washington and Beijing wanted to improve normally frosty relations between their armed forces. The U.S. has tried to use military visits to build trust with Beijing and learn more about the aims of its massive military buildup.
"In the past, these kinds of suspensions have lasted for three to six months, with some parts of the military-to-military relationship suspended beyond that," said Phillip Saunders, a distinguished research fellow at the National Defense University in Washington. "I expect something similar this time."
It's not known whether the arms sale will affect President Hu Jintao's expected visit to the U.S. this year or a summit on nuclear safety in the U.S. this spring.
Experts on China warned Beijing could take further steps to punish the United States to show its newfound power and confidence in world affairs.
Jin Canrong, a professor of international studies at China's Renmin University, said the sale would give Beijing a "fair and proper reason" to accelerate weapons testing. China test-fired rockets in recent weeks for an anti-missile defense system in what security experts said was a display of anger at the pending arms sale.
"The U.S. will pay a price for this. Starting now, China will make some substantial retaliation, such as reducing cooperation on the North Korea and Iran nuclear issues and anti-terrorism work," Jin added.
The latest suspension of military ties should affect planned visits to China by U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. A visit to the U.S. by the Chinese military's chief of the general staff, Gen. Chen Bingde, could also be called off.
The U.S. Congress has 30 days to comment on the newest arms sales before the plan goes forward. Lawmakers traditionally have supported such sales.
Though Taiwan's ties with China have warmed considerably since Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou took office 20 months ago, Beijing has threatened to invade if the island ever formalizes its de facto independence. China has more than 1,000 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan.
China often argues that arms sales to Taiwan hurt their relations, but Saunders said that despite the latest announcement and the one in 2008, "cross-Strait relations have never been better."
The arms package announced Friday dodged a thorny issue: The more advanced F-16 fighter jets that Taiwan covets are not included.
The Pentagon's decision not to include the fighters and a design plan for diesel submarines - two items Taiwan wants most - "shows that the Obama administration is deeply concerned about China's response," said Wang Kao-cheng, a defense expert at Taipei's Tamkang University.
Taiwan's Ma told reporters Saturday that the deal should not anger the mainland because the weapons are defensive, not offensive.
WHEN: Friday, January 15, 2010, 7 p.m. WHERE: Home Creations 2280 North Broadway St. Moore, OK 73160 CONTACT: CAIR-OK Executive Director Razi Hashmi, 405-415-6851 or 405-248-5853, E-mail:rhashmi@cair.com
“It is important for the community to know more about one of the fastest growing civil rights groups in the metro area that is serving the needs of the Muslim and greater community alike,” said CAIR-OK Executive Director Razi Hashmi.
A commentary distributed by CAIR challenged calls for profiling and suggested security-enhancing alternatives to ineffective religious profiling: “First look at behavior, not at faith or skin color. Then spend what it takes to obtain more bomb-sniffing dogs, to install more sophisticated bomb-detection equipment and to train security personnel in identifying the behavior of real terror suspects.”
CAIR is urging American Muslim individuals and institutions to review advice on security procedures contained in its "Muslim Community Safety Kit.”
CAIR is America's largest Muslim civil liberties and advocacy organization. Its mission is to enhance the understanding of Islam, encourage dialogue, protect civil liberties, empower American Muslims, and build coalitions that promote justice and mutual understanding.
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CONTACT: CAIR-OK Executive Director Razi Hashmi, 405-415-6851 or 405-248-5853, E-mail: rhashmi@cair.com; CAIR-OK Chair Michael Aziz Gipson, E-Mail: mgipson@cair.com; CAIR-OK Operations Coordinator Huda Abdul-Razzak, E-Mail: habdulrazzak@cair.com
While the population, largely unhappy with three decades of religious dictatorship, is not rebellious, it is becoming a lot more unruly.
The lifestyle police continue to struggle against women dressing provocatively (that is, by modest Western standards), illegal (locally made) alcohol consumption, people who do not pray, and Internet users who say what they think.
The women, drinkers, impious and bloggers are being arrested, in selective cases, to try and intimidate everyone else. But it isn't working, and never has. The people become bolder and more unruly. Iran is attempting to censor what the 21 million Iranian web users can access. Using China as a model, Iran is importing special software and training "Internet Police" to make it all work.
Iran is particularly incensed with bloggers, and has accused some of them of being spies. Iran is particularly angry about Iranian bloggers that point out the reality of the armed forces, and the incompetence of civil servants.
The military is generally a sham, with poor equipment, training and leadership. This is very contrary to the government propaganda, which regularly announces new weapons (which are never actually seen in action) and military exercises (which are mainly propaganda events, with little training value.)
Meanwhile, Iran tries to use the media, both at home and internationally, to push its warped view of reality. Internally, this is ignored by the majority of the 70 million Iranians. But a significant minority (20-30 percent of the population) does eat it up, and provides essential support for the dictatorship. Externally, IRNA (Iran Republic News Agency) is largely a joke, providing fodder for speculation about what the Iranian spin masters are trying to do.
This year, there has been marked increase in announcements of new high tech weapon systems. The systems described are usually mockups, prototypes or imaginary.
Iran does produce weapons that work, but these are simple things like rifles, mortars, unguided rockets and some licensed stuff (missiles, rockets) from China and North Korea. Iran has scientists and engineers, but not many (the religious dictatorship is not kind to anything modern, and most Iranian professionals have fled to the West). A lot of these Iranian "new weapons" appear to use students, and recent graduates, for the technical work. Lots of inspiration, but little that can be built and function reliably. The best Iranian technical talent are working on ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. Both of these projects are using lots of technology imported from China and North Korea.
While Iran makes a lot of noise about the need for Israel to be destroyed, Israeli intelligence officials (from the Mossad, and other agencies) have successfully conducted a global media and information campaign to make it clear that Iran was trying to build nuclear weapons, and where the components and technology was coming from (especially Western firms that were helping out illegally). All this may not stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon, but it is certainly delaying it considerably. This gives Iran yet another reason to dislike Israel.
Pretty much out of sight, a most crucial war is being fought to cripple the Iranian smuggling operation that supplies their weapons programs, especially nuclear weapons.
For the last five years, the U.S. has been systematically cutting Iran off from the international banking system. This has forced Iran to engage in more illegal access to banking services. This puts Iran's money at risk, as funds can be seized when illegal transactions are detected. Iran has also used the banking system to support terrorist operations (currently for Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and several groups in places like Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan), and this makes Iranian bankers even more vulnerable.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has recently remarked that the country could survive if the price of oil went below $10 a barrel. Now, as expected, he has admitted that the country is in big trouble with the price of oil under $40 (down from over $140 earlier this year.)
Government officials have earlier said that if the price of oil fell below $60 a barrel (which it has) and stays there (which it may, at least until the current recession is over), the nation will not be able to finance foreign trade (which is already having problems with increasingly effective U.S. moves to deny Iran access to the international banking system), or even the Iranian economy itself.
The latter problem is largely self-inflicted, as president Ahmadinejad desperately borrows money to placate his few (heavily armed and fanatical) followers (about 20 percent of the population).
The rest of the population has been in recession for years, and is getting increasingly angry over Ahmadinejad's mismanagement. Some 80 percent of Iran's exports are oil. Ahmadinejad is being openly blamed for squandering oil revenue when the price of oil was high. This created high inflation (nearly 30 percent) and unemployment (over 20 percent). Now, the falling price of oil will make things worse.
In the north, fighting with Kurdish separatists continues. In addition to patrols, the Revolutionary Guards regularly use artillery to hit locations believed occupied by armed Kurds. Sometimes the shells land across the border in Iraq, and most of the casualties are civilians.
A similar war goes on in the southeast, where Baluchi tribesmen battle border police, regular police and revolutionary guards who try to keep smugglers from moving heroin, opium and consumer goods across the border from Pakistan. So far this month, over three dozen Baluchi have been killed, and in the last month, Iranian security officials have arrested nearly a thousand Baluchis. Armed Baluchi groups base themselves across the border in Pakistan (which refuses to crack down on this). The Baluchi separatists have recently enraged Iranians by killing 16 Iranian policemen, who were captured last June, and held to try and obtain the release of jailed Baluchis. The Iranians refused.
"We are ready to do whatever is demanded of us" in order to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, IAF commander Maj. -Gen. Ido Nehushtan told German magazine Der Spiegel in an interview published on 18 Nov 2008
Nehushtan told the magazine that whether a military strike is eventually decided upon is a political question and not an issue of Israel's military capabilities.
A strike against Iran's nuclear facilities "is a political decision," the IAF commander said, "but if I understand it correctly, all options are on the table… The Air Force is a very robust and flexible force. We are ready to do whatever is demanded of us."
When asked by the paper whether the Israeli military was able to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, which are spread around the country and partly located underground, Nehushtan said, "Please understand that I do not want to get into details. I can only say this: It is not a technical or logistical question."
The Iraq war is moving to the borders, where support for radical groups enters the country from Iran (for Shia radicals), Syria (for Sunni radicals) and Turkey (for Kurdish radicals).
Sealing each of these borders requires a different approach.
The Iranians can be talked to, in addition to the growing number of border troops watching the frontier. The main problem is radical factions in the Iranian government, who are allowed to run their own terrorist operations in foreign countries.
The Iranian Al Quds Force (an intelligence and commando operation that supports Islamic terrorism overseas) always attracted very bright and able people, but also got personnel with a wide range of views on just what constituted an "Islamic Republic" or the proper role for the Quds Force itself.
One of the few things Quds officers could agree on was the need to remove Saddam Hussein from power. Many Quds officers actually warmed to the United States for doing the deed for them. Quds operatives were sent to Iraq in 2003 to see if they could establish another Islamic republic there.
But they quickly found that Iraq Shias were very divided on that subject.
This got many Quds officers disagreeing with their commanders back home. The feeling was that the officials back in Iran were living in a dream world.
This was reinforced by the debate over al Qaeda.
Even though this Sunni terrorist organization was violently anti-Shia, and had killed many Shia in places like Afghanistan and Pakistan, some Quds officials backed supporting al Qaeda, because of a common enemy, the United States in particular, and the West in general.
The sort of thing can happen because the Iranian leadership is more a federation than a dictatorship. So Quds can keep being nice to al Qaeda as long as not too many other Iranian factions get mad at Quds. So the Iraq government negotiates with more moderate members of the Iranian government, on how they can cooperate to control Quds, and other Iranian radicals trying to stir up trouble inside Iraq.
The situations on the Syrian and Turkish borders are more straightforward.
The Syrians, while allies of Iran, are largely Sunni, and the country has become a base for Sunni terrorist groups like al Qaeda.
So Iran tolerates Syrian support for Sunni terrorists who go to Iraq, via Syria, to kill fellow Shia. Politics is a rough game in this part of the world. But that tolerance is wearing off, and the Syrians have been told by Iran, Iraq and the United States that support for Sunni terrorists must stop, or else. Syria is being told to behave like Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, which have successfully sealed their borders to terrorists. Now it's time for Syria to join the "good neighbors" club.
The Turkish border is a little different, in that the terrorists (PKK, the Kurdish separatist group) hide out in Iraq, and launch attacks across the border in Turkey. The Kurds run their own affairs in northern Iraq, but are not willing to take out the PKK (who represent ideas, like an independent Kurdish state, that are popular with all Kurds).
So the Kurdish provincial, and Iraq national governments sort of look the other way while Turkish warplanes bomb PKK camps, and Turkish troops dash in to grab live PKK as prisoners, or examine dead ones for more intel on what the terrorist group is up to. Turkish military pressure has been pretty intense for the last few months, and the PKK is hurt. Not just by members killed or injured by the attacks, but by others who are demoralized and quit the organization. Recruitment is down and desertion is up. This is never a good sign. In the past month alone, at least a hundred PKK members have come out of the mountains near the border, and said they were quitting.
The Turks believe they may have destroyed a third of the PKK fighting power so far this year.
Most Iraq security forces are now focusing on protecting the voting centers that will be used in a few months for national elections.
These places will be, as usual, targets for the Sunni and Shia terrorists. Democracy is anathema to the religious terrorists (al Qaeda and their Iranian Shia counterparts), as the religious activists want a clerical dictatorship, not some alien Western import like democracy.
The religious terrorists are basically traditionalists, and the traditional government in this part of the world has always been a tyranny of one form or another. Thus support for tradition translates into support for some kind of dictator, hopefully a benevolent one.
Hat Tip to George @ PascoGOPBarack Obama lies about Henry Kissinger during the first debate with John McCain Sept. 26, 2008 at "Ole' Miss." Obama is caught and reprimanded by Kissinger.
Russia is likely to sell even more of its most modern anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems to Iran, according to the head of the nation's main arms export corporation.
The move looks certain to even further strain relations between Moscow and Washington that are already now as fraught as at any time since the darkest days of the Cold War.
"Contacts between our countries (on delivery of air defense systems) are continuing, and we do not see any reason to suspend them," Rosoboronexport General Director Anatoly Isaikin told a news conference at the Africa Aerospace & Defence-2008 exhibition near Cape Town, South Africa, on Sept. 18, RIA Novosti reported.
Isaikin was speaking not long after Russia sent to Iran Tor-M1 air defense missile systems worth $700 million that Tehran had ordered in late 2005, as previously reported in these columns.
RIA Novosti also confirmed that Russian advisers had prepared "Iranian Tor-M1 specialists, including radar operators and crew commanders," to operate the new systems.
The Tor-M1 will certainly upgrade Iran's air defenses against any future Israeli or U.S. pre-emptive air strikes to knock out Iran nuclear facilities.
Isaikin's comments indicated that Russia may go even further and also sell to Tehran its advanced S-300 missile system, the S-300PMU1 -- NATO designation SA-20 Gargoyle.
RIA Novosti described this system as having a range of more than 100 miles with the capability of destroying ballistic missiles and operating at both low and high altitudes.
Some analysts have even claimed that the S-300 could have an 80 percent interception rate capability against America's old, slow and in many respects obsolete subsonic Tomahawk cruise missiles.
The Russian report also noted that Iran had already carried out several air defense maneuvers this year, culminating in what it described as "a three-day series of Air Force and missile defense exercises on Sept. 15 to 18."
As the U.S. ans NATO awaits Moscow’s threatened reprisal for the treaty installing American missile interceptors at Redzikowo, on Poland’s Baltic coast – signed in Warsaw Wednesday - the Kremlin is striking back in the Middle East – hence
Military sources disclose that a powerful Russian naval contingent, led by the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov , left Murmansk on the Barents Sea Aug. 18 to dock at the Syrian Mediterranean port of Tartus Saturday, Aug. 23. It includes the Russian Navy’s biggest missile cruiser Moskva and at least four nuclear missile submarines. At the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Syrian president Bashar Assad told reporters Thursday, Aug. 21, that he is considering a Russian request to deploy missiles in his country in view of Russian-Western tensions over the Georgian conflict, which he said had polarized East and West anew.
Assad signaled he would also be representing Tehran’s interests in his talks with Russian leaders. Jordan’s King Abdullah is on his way to join them later in the day.
Before the Russian flotilla departed Murmansk, Assad is reported by our sources as having given the nod for Tartus port’s conversion into a permanent Middle East base for Russia’s nuclear-armed warships.
Assad’s arrival coincided with a visit by a large Syrian military delegation Thursday at the Russian weapons manufacturing giant, the Kalinin Machines Plant, east of Moscow. Military sources report that this plant makes sophisticated anti-air missile systems, including the S-300 and the BUK M, for which Damascus is bidding. The Syrian ruler has said he is seeking closer military cooperation with Russia. The deal emerging from his visit is expected to cover the Russian Navy’s use of Tartus in return for a mutual defense accord providing Syria with a Russian nuclear umbrella and generous terms for his arms purchases.
Aug. 17, Military sources first revealed Russia’s planned nuclear military deployments in the Middle East and Baltic to punish America for its missile deal with Poland and Georgia's attack in South Ossetia. They would included the installation of Iskandar surface missiles (nuclear-capable 200 km-range) in Syria and Kaliningrad.
An Iranian news network IRNN showed footage of what it called a domestically-manufactured communications satellite named Safir-e Omid being launched in darkness, accompanied by patriotic hymns, Sunday, Aug. 17.
Reports from one Iranian source that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad attended the event. Our military sources stress that confirmation of Iran’s successful launch would represent a strategic breakthrough, testifying to Tehran’s ability to fire ballistic missiles possibly armed with nuclear warheads to distances of thousands of kilometers, against Israel and beyond; Europe and parts of Asia would also be in range. The launching would have paved the way for spy satellites.
If verified, Iran’s space achievement would offset one of Israel’s prime military assets, its superiority in space technology.
According to sources, Tehran caught both the CIA and Mossad by surprise. They knew Iran was working on a space program but not how close the Iranians were to placing a satellite in orbit.
Sources believe that the capsule was boosted by the Shehab-5 missile, whose range the Iranians boast is up to 5,000 km and, according to some military experts, reaches 7,000 km.
The Islamic Republic’s reported feat comes at a bad time for Moscow internationally. The Russians emphatically dismiss America’s argument for installing missile interceptors in Poland as a shield against Iranian ballistic missile attack, claiming they were aimed at Russia. The Kremlin accuses the Bush administration using this false claim as a pretext, because Iran had not so far developed a ballistic threat. Now, that proof may have been provided Sunday, Moscow will have to reconsider its position. SEE: POLAND TAKES THE SHIELD - TELL KREMLIN UP YOUR !
The Iranian leadership is desperate to have someone invade their country, or make some kind of spectacular attack.
The reason is simple, years of stealing oil revenue is catching up with the larcenous clerics who have been running the country since the 1980s.
It was the Iraqi invasion of 1980 that enabled the clerics to seize power, and enact a constitution that made the clergy the final word on what was legal, and what was not, forever. In effect, this created a religious dictatorship. People being what they are, it wasn't long before the clerics began helping themselves to the oil money.
It wasn't just the clerics, there were plenty of the faithful with useful skills that had to be paid off as well. The problem was, this was not a secret. Give a guy a pile of cash and one of the first things he does is build a big house. It soon became apparent that most of the big houses were for clerics and their minions.
In the last few years, the theft has grown, and so have the number of luxury homes in the outskirts of Iran's major cities. But so much money was being diverted (we're talking billions of dollars a month, tens of billions in some months), that there wasn't much left to build homes for anyone else, or invest in businesses that would provide jobs for young Iranians. Except, of course, for the children of the clerics. You can always tell who they are, riding around in late model cars, often accompanied by an SUV full of bodyguards. There has been some violence against these spoiled "princes", and measures have been taken to prevent the angry poor from getting out of hand.
The bodyguards are often poor, but pious, kids from the country. Lots of villages out are still out there where everything, including religious beliefs, are old school. Iran's rulers have recruited the most religious Iranians to staff the secret police and the Revolutionary Guards (which mainly guards against any disloyalty in the armed forces, or any other dangerous group of Iranians.) About twenty percent of the population is still pretty religious, and willing to look the other way (when it comes to corruption) in return for a good paycheck and some slick sermons. Everyone else can rely on stealing, begging and prostitution.
But the clerical dictatorship realizes the clock is ticking. With so many of the people against them, and evidence of the corruption so obvious, something else is needed. Something like an American invasion, which would instantly tap into latent nationalism and rally the people behind the dictators. But the U.S. isn't cooperating. A poor second would be an attack by Israel. That would be embarrassing, given all the negative propaganda Iran generates against Israel (and how it will be destroyed and so on.) Of course, an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear weapons facilities can be blamed on the Americans, but that doesn't really have the same impact as U.S. tanks crossing the Iranian border and moving towards the capital.
So, for the moment, the corrupt clergy can only steal, and hope.
After a month of fighting, the Mahdi Army has disappeared from the streets of Basra, the largest city in the south. The army and police are everywhere, and people are providing information on where Mahdi Army personnel are hiding out, and the locations of their weapons caches. Up north, in the Sadr City section of east Baghdad, the Mahdi Army is still fighting hard. But the army and police have the upper hand, and are pushing the Shia militiamen back block by block. Mahdi Army leader Muqtada al Sadr has responded by threatening to order his men to go after American troops if the government does not back off. That's won't work, because the Mahdi Army is not particularly skillful, and not very united either. He recently ordered his troops to stop fighting Iraqi soldiers and police, and concentrate on the Americans. The Iraqi security forces have not reciprocated, and continue coming after the Mahdi Army.
The dozen or so factions of the Mahdi Army vary in their loyalty to Sadr, or to political solutions. Several of the Mahdi Army factions are basically criminal gangs masquerading as religious zealots. Sadr denies he is a pawn of Iran, but as Mahdi Army houses are captured, more Iranian weapons and equipment show up, as well as religious propaganda from Iran. Iraqi president Maliki has told Sadr that the offensive would halt if the Mahdi Army surrenders all its weapons, stops attacking, or trying to infiltrate (by joining) the security forces, and hands over members wanted for crimes. So far, Sadr refuses, probably because many of his followers would turn on him if he tried. But Sadr also realizes that the Iraqi soldiers and police are capable, eventually, of grinding the Mahdi Army into nothingness. Another month or so of fighting and the Mahdi Army will be no more.
Al Sadr, and many of his followers, see all this violence against them as a plot by the Badr Organization to be the last major militia standing. The Badr Organization began as a Shia anti-Saddam exile group, in Iran, a quarter century ago. But the Badr "Brigade" renounced the use of force, formed a political party, and urged its Brigade members to join the army and police. This they did, and many believe these former militiamen are still loyal to their Badr Brigade bosses. But the Badr leaders insist that the Brigade is no more, and the Badr Organization is strictly political. In any event, the Badr people have been more cooperative with the government than the Sadr crew.
Meanwhile, Sunni Arab politicians have returned to the government. These Sunni Arab political parties had walked out of the government nine months ago, angry over the failure to guarantee their rights, safety and share of the oil revenue. Since then, the Sunni Arab terrorism effort has been shattered, with many of the Sunni Arab terror groups switched sides and joined the war against al Qaeda.
Iraq is trying to get its Arab neighbors to forgive some $65 billion in Saddam era debts, without much success. Most of the money was borrowed in the 1980s, when Iraq was at war with Iran. Iraq has already had some $65 billion in debts, mostly to Russia and European nations, forgiven. But the Arabs want their money. The other Arab states in the region see Shia dominated Iraq as a potential ally of Iran, and not "real" Arabs. Conservative Sunni Arab clerics regularly preach that Shia Moslems (like most Iraqis and nearly all Iranians) are heretics and not to be trusted.
The government is openly proclaiming the decline, if not complete destruction, of Sunni Arab terrorist group al Qaeda, at least in Iraq. There are far fewer suicide bomb attacks, and most of them are individuals wearing explosive belts, rather that more elaborate car or truck bombs. Moreover, the targets are all "soft" (easy to reach civilians). Al Qaeda is trying to be selective, going after the leaders of Sunni Arab groups that switched sides in the past few months. It is this kind of brutality that caused Sunni Arab groups to turn on al Qaeda, but that kind of logic is lost on the remaining terrorists.
Up north, Turkish warplanes and artillery continue to hit suspected PKK bases along the Iraqi border. The Kurdish government in the north protests, but quietly. No one in the region wants to get into a squabble with the Turks, especially not the Turkish army.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday held talks with his visiting Indonesian counterpart Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, thanking Jakarta for refusing to support the latest UN sanctions against Iran.
"The position of the Indonesian government is the legal and fair position and I hope it will be a start of a movement to correct international structures," Ahmadinejad told the visiting president.
"I hope that with this visit that relations between the two countries will develop further. There is no obstacle in the way of Iran developing its cooperation with Indonesia," he added, according to the Mehr news agency.
Indonesia, which holds one of the rotating seats on the UN Security Council, was the only Council member not to vote for the latest sanctions resolution on the Iranian nuclear programme on March 3.
Indonesia abstained, but Libya, South Africa and Vietnam, which had joined Indonesia in expressing reservations about the need for fresh sanctions, finally voted in favour.
Resolution 1803 imposed a third set of sanctions against Tehran over its refusal to heed the Council's calls to suspend uranium enrichment and gives Iran another three months to suspend the process.
Iran insists its nuclear programme is solely aimed at generating energy and it has every right to the nuclear fuel cycle, including uranium enrichment.
Media said Iran and Indonesia also signed cooperation agreements in education, agriculture, refining and trade.
Ahmadinejad himself visited Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, in May 2006 for talks with its leaders in Jakarta on the nuclear crisis and economic cooperation.
Iran has been assiduously courting the support of Non Aligned Movement (NAM) allies like Indonesia to counter the effects of increasingly frigid relations with Western countries.
