Meaning of Islam...

Do not buy in to the Myth that
CAIR-OK
and The
OKLAHOMA GOVERNOR’S ETHNIC AMERICAN ADVISORY COUNCIL
push:

Muslims sometimes claim that the root word of Islam is “al-Salaam,” which is “peace” in Arabic.

The Truth:

An Arabic word only has one root. The root word for Islam is “al-Silm,” which means “submission” or “surrender.” There is no controversy about this among Islamic scholars. al-Silm (submission) does not mean the same thing as al-Salaam (peace), otherwise they would be the same word.

Submission and peace can be very different concepts, even if a form of peace is often brought about through forcing others into submission. As the modern-day Islamic scholar, Ibrahim Sulaiman, puts it, "Jihad is not inhumane, despite its necessary violence and bloodshed, its ultimate desire is peace which is protected and enhanced by the rule of law."

In truth, the Qur’an not only calls Muslims to submit to Allah, it also commands them to subdue people of other religions until they are in a full state of submission to Islamic rule. This has inspired the aggressive history of Islam and its success in conquering other cultures.

Two Became Twenty

Two Became Twenty

by

Margy Pezdirtz

It was a quiet Friday, one in which I wanted to study and prepare for the coming Shabbat, when my phone rang. Renee said, "Did you get the flyer? The one about the CAIR anti-Israel rally this afternoon at 4:30? I thought you might want to do something about it."

"No, I didn’t get the flyer. What’s happening." And that began the end of a quiet afternoon.

CAIR - Council on American-Islamic Relations - was sponsoring a rally from 4:30 to 6:00 to "to decry Israel’s attack on humanitarian aid ship share." Probably the last thing in the world I wanted to do on this very hot June afternoon was to stand on a street corner and protest the protestors. I thought about it for a moment. Could I, in all honesty and integrity, sit back in my comfortable, air conditioned home and do nothing? And what about my ten-year-old granddaughter who was with me until her parents got off work. Should I take her to a rally like this that could conceivably turn dangerous?

I thought about it for a moment and knew I had to act. If not me, then who? If not now, then when? I quickly forwarded the article on to my email list asking anyone and everyone that could to join me at 4:00 at the intersection. I called people whom I knew wouldn’t receive the email prior to getting home and told them of our intentions and asked them to call as many people as they could and to please join us.

My sister was across town with her daughter who is due to have a baby any day now. I called her and said, "Is the baby coming?" "No," she responded. "Then I have something more important for you to do." I gave her instructions and was happy when she said, "OK." I wasn’t sure I would leave my daughter in that situation, but she is as committed to Israel as I am and she knew I wouldn’t be calling if it wasn’t significant.

I grabbed a box of Israeli window flags from my garage and threw them in the car along with a generous supply of ice water. An hour and a half in the sun could be a very long time and water would be necessary, not only for myself but for others who might show up. I donned white pants and my blue tee that showed crossed Israeli and America flags and said, "United We Stand...Divided We Fall" and backed out of the driveway. My heart and head were racing, and I wondered if I was walking into trouble. My granddaughter and I prayed as we drove towards the site of the rally where my son would pick her up. Rushing toward the freeway, I explained words to her like ‘flotilla’, ‘humanitarian’ and once again, "God’s love for the land and people of Israel."

In the beginning Renee and I were the only ones at the intersection where the rally was supposed to be held. We took our stand across the street from the anti-Israel bunch and began waving Israeli flags at passers by. At her suggestion, I called the local talk radio show, a conservative station, and told host Lee Matthews what we were doing. He put it on the air and soon, cars were passing by and honking in agreement with the two of us. I had told the Lee that I had Israeli flags I would give out to anyone who pulled over and asked for one.

A man in a white pickup truck was stopped at the traffic light, going in the opposite direction. He sat watching us as he waited on the light and I hollered, "Would you like a flag?" He nodded yes and I ran one across two traffic lanes to him. He took the flag and said, "I’m going to park and come help you." His name was David.

Every fifteen minutes, the radio station called for a report on what was happening. I was delighted to tell them people were listening and responding to us. He wanted to know how many there were at the CAIR site and I told him I could see seven, which later turned to eleven. As we talked on the radio, I continued to wave flags and smile at people.

Others came and joined us. One couple, Mike and Betty, said they were sitting on their porch in El Reno - a town approximately thirty miles away, when they heard on the radio about the anti-anti-Israel rally. Mike looked at his wife and said, "We better get down there."

Another couple heard about it on the radio as they were driving home from work and they detoured to our location to join us.

A beautifully dressed young woman who lives in Northwest Oklahoma City heard about it on the radio, pulled into the Walgreen’s parking lot across the street and waited for the very long light to change so she could literally run across the street to join us. She grabbed a flag and began standing watch with us.

And they continued to come. They were individuals. They were couples. Some were on their way home from work. Some were just driving by. Others heard about it on the radio and were moved to action. They were Christians and they knew this was late on a Friday afternoon when Jews were preparing for Shabbat and most likely wouldn’t be able to come join in the rally, so they responded to the invitation and stood on the hot corner, waving flags and shouting "support Israel." My spirits were lifted. I was thrilled to see the response and to hear the conversations of the people who joined us. They cheerfully pulled flags out of the bag and started waving them and giving them out and when we ran out, I ran back to the car and brought all I had.

We had a sign that said, "Honk for Israel" and people put the flags on their car windows and drove around the block two, three and four times honking for Israel. When the anti-Israel CAIR bunch mimicked our sign with one that said, "honk for Islam," people on our side of the street honked even louder and longer.

Our group had grown considerably. There were suddenly twelve and then twenty and more came as some left. One woman, riding on a large motorbike flying an American flag pulled into the intersection, parked the bike and said, "I came to join you." I laughed and said, "Welcome Biker Babe" and we continued to wave flags, hold up signs supporting Israel. I couldn’t help but give praise to God that the response from those joining us and those passing by with honking horns, were so supportive.

The CAIR group watched us and even sent someone over, dressed in intimidating black, with an camera to take our pictures from all angles. I made sure he got excellent pictures of us – what his rationale was didn’t matter. What mattered was that they – the CAIR – people saw not everyone bought their story of Israel’s unfairness to so-called humanitarian ships.

The hour and a half passed quickly and our spirits continued in spite of the hot sun. We were tired and thirsty but we shouted with the greatest of joy when one of Oklahoma City’s beautiful, large fire engines drove by and tapped out a tune of support to us on their air horn. We heard it loud and clear and I’m sure the CAIR people did as well, but there was no doubt whom the firefighters were supporting.

The rally was supposed to be over at 6:00 p.m. The hour came and went and the CAIR people stayed on. We were determined that we would win this demonstration by sheer will power, if nothing else, and we continued to stand on the corner, waving flags, shouting for Israel and laughing. Finally, at 6:30, the CAIR crowd had diminished to one person against our dozen or so remaining. We waited and watched as they packed up their last person, their signs and flags into a vehicle and drove off. Only then, did we call an end to our rally. One person in our group was determined to stay on the corner until he had given out his last flag and we left him there waving his flag and showing determination to all, reaffirming his – and our – solidarity with Israel.

*************************************

For more Background please read

Former Oklahoman National CAIR Board Member Deported

Terror in Oklahoma

CAIR-OK to Host Town Hall, Crying about Profiling of Muslims at Airports

Some pictures from today CAIR-OK 'Peace' Vigil

Obama campaign meets with Islamic Radicals

OK-5 Candidate Kevin Calvey to Protest OKC Area Meeting of Terrorist Front Group

For more background click here

Fifth District Congressional Candidate Kevin Calvey (R-Oklahoma City) today announced a protest of tomorrow’s scheduled meeting of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Oklahoma City area.

“CAIR has been identified by several law enforcement sources as a front group or propagandist for terrorists, including Hamas, and CAIR has been frequently denounced by the Anti-Defamation League for their anti-Semitic and anti-American statements,” said Calvey, who prosecuted terrorists while deployed with the Army National Guard in Iraq in 2007-2008.

Calvey was awarded the Bronze Star medal for his service in Iraq. “Oklahomans should be outraged that a group like CAIR is operating in our midst,” said Calvey.

“I urge fellow Oklahomans to join me in peacefully protesting the CAIR meeting tomorrow night.”

CAIR is an unindicted co-conspirator in the US Justice Department’s terrorist-financing case against the Texas-based Holy Land Foundation.



The FBI broke official ties to CAIR a little over a year ago due to concerns about CAIR’s ties to Hamas.

See:
http://www.adl.org/Israel/cair/default.asp

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/11/11/fbi-ties-cair-remain- strained-obama-administration/

CAIR, which styles itself as the nation’s largest Islamic advocacy group, announced it will host a “Town Hall” meeting on the subject of airport profiling and security. The meeting will be held tomorrow, Friday, January 15, 2010, at 7:00 p.m. at Home Creations, 2280 North Broadway, Moore, Oklahoma.

Calvey urged protesters to arrive early to make their views about terrorism known.

“This is not about protesting Islam. This is about protesting terrorism. There are many Muslims who cooperate with America and our allies in the fight against terrorism,” said Calvey. “This is about protesting one group that appears intent on pushing propaganda for terrorists and hampering America in the fight against terrorism.”

Kevin Calvey is a small businessman and a conservative former State Representative from Del City.

Kevin volunteered to deploy to Iraq as a Captain in the Oklahoma Army National Guard in 2007, and his mission in Iraq was to prosecute al Qaeda leaders and other terrorists in the Iraqi court system. Kevin was awarded the Bronze Star Medal for his service.
Kevin and his wife, Toni, live in Oklahoma City with their baby, Anastasia.

CAIR-OK to Host Town Hall, Crying about Profiling of Muslims at Airports

On January 15, the Oklahoma chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR-OK) will hold a town hall meeting at Home Creations in Moore to discuss issues of concern to the Muslim community such as airport profiling, youth empowerment and civic engagement.

WHAT: CAIR-Oklahoma Town Hall Meeting

WHEN: Friday, January 15, 2010, 7 p.m.
WHERE: Home Creations
2280 North Broadway St.
Moore, OK 73160
CONTACT: CAIR-OK Executive Director Razi Hashmi, 405-415-6851 or 405-248-5853, E-mail: rhashmi@cair.com

“It is important for the community to know more about one of the fastest growing civil rights groups in the metro area that is serving the needs of the Muslim and greater community alike,” said CAIR-OK Executive Director Razi Hashmi.

A commentary distributed by CAIR challenged calls for profiling and suggested security-enhancing alternatives to ineffective religious profiling: “First look at behavior, not at faith or skin color. Then spend what it takes to obtain more bomb-sniffing dogs, to install more sophisticated bomb-detection equipment and to train security personnel in identifying the behavior of real terror suspects.”

CAIR is urging American Muslim individuals and institutions to review advice on security procedures contained in its "Muslim Community Safety Kit.”

CAIR is America's largest Muslim civil liberties and advocacy organization. Its mission is to enhance the understanding of Islam, encourage dialogue, protect civil liberties, empower American Muslims, and build coalitions that promote justice and mutual understanding.

- END -

CONTACT: CAIR-OK Executive Director Razi Hashmi, 405-415-6851 or 405-248-5853, E-mail: rhashmi@cair.com; CAIR-OK Chair Michael Aziz Gipson, E-Mail: mgipson@cair.com; CAIR-OK Operations Coordinator Huda Abdul-Razzak, E-Mail: habdulrazzak@cair.com

The Many Terrorists Of India

The recent Islamic terrorist carnage in India reminds everyone that India has been one the major victims of terrorism of late. Last year, Indian suffered over a thousand dead from terrorist attacks.

Over 2,000 died in 2006.

While Islamic terrorism, as in Mumbai, was a major source of deaths, it was not the only one.

The major source of Islamic terrorism in India is the Pakistani backed campaign to drive Indians, particularly non-Moslem Indians, out of the disputed, by India and Pakistan, province of Kashmir (actually Jammu-Kashmir, as the lower portion of the state, Jammu, is largely Hindu.) Kashmir, on the other side of a mountain range from Jammu, is largely Moslem, and Pakistan believes all of Kashmir (Pakistan invaded and seized northern Kashmir in the late 1940s) should be theirs.

Twenty years ago, Pakistan decided that terrorism was the only practical way to get Kashmir back. India was more powerful militarily, and had beaten Pakistan in every war between them. The terrorist groups, that have bases and training camps in Pakistani Kashmir, not only send terrorists across the border into Indian Kashmir, but have also been responsible for about two-thirds of the deaths, from Islamic terrorism, in the rest of India.

It was apparently Kashmir based terrorists who carried out the recent Mumbai atrocities.

There are several separate terrorist groups operating in Kashmir. These include; Lashkar-e-Taiba (apparently the organizers of the recent Mumbai murders), Jaish-e-Muhammad, Harakat ul-Jihad-I-Islami and Harakat ul-Mujahedeen (the last two formerly operated in Afghanistan against the Russians during the 1980s).

There have been several thousand Islamic terrorists active in Kashmir (on both sides of the border) since the late 1980s. The numbers are kept down by the deaths of most terrorists who get into Indian Kashmir.

The Pakistani based terrorists has also caused the growth of similar, but much smaller, groups inside India (which has 150 million Moslems). The Kashmir terrorism campaign has largely failed, and the number of active terrorists there has been dwindling over the past few years.

This has apparently played a part it carrying out attacks elsewhere in India. Only some parts of the Pakistani government back these terrorists, as most Pakistanis realize that too much Pakistani based Islamic terrorism inside India could trigger a major war with India. Since both nations now have nuclear weapons, this could get very ugly. The Islamic terrorists don't care, as they are on a Mission From God, and whatever happens is God's Will.

Tribal separatists in northeast India are another major source of terrorist deaths. The northeastern tribal territories only became part of India when the British colonial government departed in 1947. The tribes resented this, as well as the growing flood of migrants from other parts of India. The terrorism was directed largely at these immigrants. There used to be over 5,000 active and armed separatists, but counter-terror operations, and an amnesty program, have reduced the number to less than a thousand. Many of the separatists have devolved into criminal gangs and bandits.

The third source of terrorism is in eastern India, where communist (Maoist) rebels seek to establish a communist dictatorship, in order to resolve the social and economic inequities in the region. There are 5-10,000 armed Maoists out in the countryside, where they battle counter-terrorism forces and locals who violently disagree with the Maoists goals and methods.

India uses local police, a special force (165,000 members of the Central Reserve Police Force), the army, and several intelligence agencies to battle their terrorism problems.

The Foreign Ministry has also been useful because of its efforts to get other nations to recognize these terrorist organizations as "international terrorists", and thus subject to sanctions and prosecution overseas. This has caused Pakistan increasing problems. The "Kashmir belongs to Pakistan" cause is very popular inside Pakistan, making it difficult for Pakistan to crack down on Pakistani terrorists that carry out operations inside India, and sometimes elsewhere in the world as well.

The backlash from the Mumbai atrocities, and Islamic terrorist attacks on the Pakistani government is putting more pressure on Pakistan to crush its domestic Islamic radical groups.

This is particularly true with the Taliban in Pakistan. This group is just the most recent manifestation of violent Islamic conservatism in Pakistan's tribal areas. Pakistan has always tried to compromise with domestic terrorist groups, but the recent Islamic violence in Pakistan, Afghanistan and India is forcing Pakistan to confront Islamic terrorists, and deal with the problem once and for all. That won't be easy, as a large minority of Pakistanis support the Islamic militants.

Obama campaign meets with Islamic Radicals

Hat Tip to Erick @ RedState

NBC News is reporting the Obama campaign in September had several meetings with "several controversial Muslim activists."

The meeting included Mahdi Bray, a supporter of Hezbollah and Hamas. "In a 2004 interview, he called the Israeli assassination of a Hamas spiritual leader an 'unlawful, cowardly and dangerous act of state-sponsored terrorism.'"

Nihad Awad of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) attended.

Likewise,

Chicago-based lawyer Mazen Asbahi also attended the meeting. He is the Obama campaign’s former Muslim outreach coordinator, who abruptly resigned in August after the Wall Street Journal and websites that track fundamentalist Islam began questioning Asbahi’s involvement in an Islamic investment fund and various Islamic groups.

And here we were worried about Obama's ACORN ties.

Where Al Qaeda Excels

The movement of al Qaeda's main effort from Iraq to Pakistan does not involve large numbers, and the numbers have declined since the terrorists began urging new recruits to head for Pakistan. For several years, about a hundred foreign volunteers (usually for suicide type attacks) entered Iraq each month, brought in via an al Qaeda network in some Arab and European countries. Money is collected there, often under the guise of an Islamic charity, to pay for airfare, fees (some of the operatives along the way are basically mercenaries) and bribes (to get past border controls of countries trying to stop this traffic).

Now, only a few dozen al Qaeda recruits are getting to Pakistan each month. It's more expensive to get to Pakistan, compared to Iraq, and the government does not make it easy. There's also been a decline in cash contributions. Al Qaeda was beaten in Iraq, after years of saying they were winning. Al Qaedas mass murder campaign in Iraq killed mostly Moslems, and this was unpopular among potential donors. The violence in Iraq used the idea of "al Qaeda" to unite many very different Islamic militant groups, and the same concept is being used in Pakistan. Here there are tribal militias, operating as vigilantes against real or imagined sins against Islam. In the cities there are many different groups. Some are at war with another Islamic faction, others simply wish to impose their religious beliefs and practices on all other Moslems. But many do not want to be associated with al Qaeda, because of the groups reputation of violence towards Moslem women and children.

Local politicians (in Pakistan and Afghanistan) would like to blame much of the unrest on outsiders, and al Qaeda certainly fits the bill. But al Qaeda is a relatively small operation, and most of the Islamic radicals in the area are locals. Using religion as a tool to gain political and military advantage is an old problem, especially in Moslem countries. In general, Moslems like to play down this aspect of their religion, preferring to call Islam, "the religion of peace." But too many Moslem clerics, and ambitious politicians, are all too willing to exploit the militant and violent aspects of Islam. This is especially true along the Pakistan-Afghan border. But al Qaeda is a much smaller player in the region than its media coverage wound indicate. Al Qaeda is much better at playing the press than it is at doing anything else.

HOO-AH: Don't Short-Circuit the Surge

Iraq is one theater in the War against Islamic Extremism. Al Qaeda's two principal leaders, Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri, have repeatedly called Iraq the "front line" in their war against Western civilization. We have no choice but to find the patience to give the military the time it needs to complete the job we asked them to do. The alternative, advocated by the liberal/progressive left wing and the Democratic Presidential candidates, is to admit defeat, surrender to al Qaeda in Iraq after so much sacrifice and battle an emboldened enemy in other theaters until we tire there as well.

Hat tip to Dan @ CALIFORNIA YANKEE

Don't Short-Circuit the Surge

By KIMBERLY KAGAN
January 26, 2008; Page A11

The Iraq debate in 2007 focused on whether the new strategy and troop increase could stem violence in Iraq. It did. The Iraq debate in 2008 will probably focus on how much the United States can reduce force levels in Iraq this year in the wake of its success.

Many in these discussions give troop numbers and brigade counts almost casually, without ever explaining how they derive the figures. That's a problem. Any realistic evaluation suggests that returning to pre-surge levels by July 2008, as some are suggesting, carries considerable risk.

Ethno-sectarian attacks and deaths in Baghdad security districts decreased more than 90% from January to December 2007. Iraqi civilian casualties have dropped 75% from their peak, and the number of IED attacks has fallen to the lowest level since October 2004. One brigade of U.S. troops returned home in December without replacement. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates believes that Gen. David Petraeus will recommend continuing the drawdown to 15 brigades.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff, CENTCOM commander Adm. William Fallon, and Gen. Petraeus are now assessing whether to recommend in March a further reduction in troop levels later in 2008. Mr. Gates stated recently that he hopes conditions will permit the U.S. to reduce its combat forces in Iraq by a brigade a month from August to December 2008, leaving a footprint of 10 brigades at the end of the president's term -- the lowest American force level in the country since the 2003 invasion.

In contrast, Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, who commands combat forces for Gen. Petraeus, has stated that he is uncomfortable committing to any further reductions below 15 brigades before commanders can assess the effect of the decrease to that force-size. Gen. Petraeus recently said that March 2008 might be too soon to make that determination. War critics have insisted on reductions to 100,000 troops or fewer.

The brigade combat team, commanded by a colonel and consisting of around 3,500 soldiers (5,000 or so counting the support elements that normally deploy with it) is the building block of the U. S. Army (its equivalent, the Regimental Combat Team, is the building block of the Marine Corps). There are currently 42 BCTs in the active force. Those who speak of an absolute number of troops that they desire in Iraq show their ignorance of the military planning process.

American brigades in Iraq oversee combat, training, and governance missions in their sector, whether a quadrant of Baghdad or an entire outlying province. Each brigade oversees an area with hundreds of thousands of inhabitants. Brigades plan and execute military operations that prevent extremists from returning to cleared areas. They also gather intelligence about enemy groups in their areas of operations, and thus determine where new threats are emerging.

Since the end of 2006, brigades have overseen the Military Transition Teams that train and advise the Iraqi security forces operating in their area, dramatically improving the coordination of Iraqi and American forces. Now, most American brigade headquarters are partnered with an Iraqi division headquarters, helping the Iraqis to plan and sustain increasingly complex operations.

Since spring 2007, the brigades have housed the Embedded Provincial Reconstruction Teams that have jumpstarted local and provincial Iraqi government. The brigade helps these teams move through the area. The brigades have been instrumental in the Iraqi population's rejection of al Qaeda. Brigade commanders and their staffs and subordinates have negotiated ceasefires with leaders of tribes, villages and urban neighborhoods; identified Concerned Local Citizens; and integrated these Iraqi civilians with the Iraqi Security Forces. Brigade commanders in 2008 may distribute their own troops between combat and training missions, rather than relying on a centrally-directed policy untailored to local circumstances.

The brigade has thus become much more than a fighting unit. The development of the Iraqi Security Forces and Iraqi civilian institutions, which has been a hallmark of Gen. Petraeus's counterinsurgency strategy and a pillar of its success in 2007, rests upon the American brigade headquarters. Maintaining security essential to drawing down the American force levels requires the presence in Iraq of enough brigade headquarters to conduct the combat, training and governance missions essential to success.

The way to determine the number of brigade headquarters suitable for Iraq is by determining the number of brigade-sized missions in the country. This is a challenging but not insuperable task.

There were too few brigades in 2006 to monitor the enemy and oversee the new government institutions in poor security situations. There were enough brigades by mid- 2007 to perform those tasks, although not equally in all areas. The "surge" was never intended to secure all of Iraq -- only to stabilize Baghdad and Anbar. Its unexpected success has also placed unanticipated strains on U.S. forces. We won more than we had hoped, and now we may need to defend it more than we had planned.

The "surge" posture from June through December 2007 included five BCTs in Baghdad; four in the southern "belt" (from Mahmudiyah on the Euphrates to Nahrawan east of the capital); three in Anbar (including 2 Marine Regiments); four in the northern belt (Taji; Tarmiyah; and Diyala, where a Quick Reaction Force spent much of the summer along with the dedicated brigade); and one each in Salah-ad-Din, Kirkuk, Ninevah, and on convoy protection duty.

Gen. Odierno recently shifted two brigades within Iraq to conduct his third major offensive against al Qaeda, Operation Phantom Phoenix, to disrupt and pursue the enemy in northern Iraq. The December reduction to 19 BCTs has left only one brigade headquarters in Diyala. General Odierno intends to thin the headquarters and the troops on the ground in Anbar and Baghdad in order to achieve the remaining four-brigade reduction back to pre-surge levels by July.

The decision to draw down the surge is predicated not only on current security gains, but on the assumption that security will continue to improve in areas where the reductions are programmed to occur. Gen. Petraeus, testifying before Congress in September, attributed the downturn in violence, then 12 weeks old, to three factors: the summer offensives against al Qaeda and militias, the Iraqi population's rejection of extremists, and the slowly increasing capabilities of the Iraqi security forces.

"Based on all this and the further progress we believe we can achieve over the next few months, I believe that we will be able to reduce our forces to the pre-surge level of brigade combat teams by next summer, withdrawing one quarter of our combat brigades by that time without jeopardizing the security gains that we have fought so hard to achieve." Gen. Odierno confirmed in a November press conference that he had recommended that Gen. Petraeus reduce the force to 15 brigades by July, "because I believe that we will be able to continue to move forward with the progress."

Achieving the complement of 15 brigades by summer rests upon Gen. Odierno's judgment that he can withdraw not only the headquarters from Diyala, but also others from Anbar and parts of Baghdad this spring. His assumption is that security will continue to improve at about the rate our commanders think is feasible between now and July, and that the Iraqi Army will grow as predicted.

There is considerable risk in this assumption. Coalition and Iraqi forces have not finished clearing Ninevah province, Salah ad-Din and parts of Babil. Major operations continue against al Qaeda remnants in Ninevah, Salah-ad-Din, Diyala, Kirkuk and Wasit provinces. Fighting between Iraqi Security Forces (aided by coalition special forces and our Georgian, Polish and British allies) and Mahdi Army militias continues in the south.

The withdrawal to 15 brigades already assumes that these operations will be successful. It provides no cushion for unexpected developments or unforeseen enemy responses. There is thus no military basis at all at the present time to recommend additional reductions in 2008.

One year ago, Gen. Petraeus testified before Congress: "I was assured . . . by the secretary of Defense . . . that if we need additional assets, my job is to ask for them. If they're not provided in some case, my job is to tell my boss the risk involved in accomplishing the mission without the assets that are required. And at some point, of course, you may have to go back and say that you cannot accomplish the mission because of the assets that have not been provided."

By the best estimates now available, 15 brigades is the absolute minimum force required to accomplish the mission that has brought us success in 2007. Any further reductions -- even by a single brigade -- may make that mission impossible.

Ms. Kagan is an affiliate of Harvard's John M. Olin Institute of Strategic Studies and the president of the Institute for the Study of War in Washington.