Another Rhineland...

Russia has announced that it will, in effect, annex the Georgian separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

No one is willing to face down the Russians on this issue, which many of Russias neighbors see as the first of many such annexations.

There is a precedent for this sort of thing, and it all began on the French-German border in 1936.

Some historians see the German reoccupation of the Rhineland in 1936 as the real beginning of World War II.

As part of the treaty that ended World War I, Germany agreed to keep troops out of the Rhineland (a German region on the French border). Going back in was a huge gamble for the Germans, who were in the midst of rebuilding their military, and, in 1936, much weaker than France or Britain.

But neither of these countries were willing to risk the violence that might occur if they went after the 32,000 troops and police Germany sent into the Rhineland. This convinced Hitler that he could bully the Western allies, and grab neighboring countries with impunity.

This worked for Austria and Czechoslovakia, but triggered World War II when Germany and Russia (by prior agreement) carved up Poland in 1939.

Russia may not have its sights on Poland this time around, but Belarus, Ukraine, the Baltic States and a few of the Central Asian "stans" would be nice. Would, or could, anyone stop them?

Hitler didn't have nuclear weapons, nor was Germany the supplier of a quarter of Europe's energy needs. Hitler also didn't have the support of the German people for such military adventures, the current Russian government does. Russia also still has its secret police apparatus.

Perhaps not as large as when the Soviet Union was still around, but it's still there. Credit Cards, the Internet and cell phones make it easier to keep track of people. There are still KGB old timers around who remember how to run a prison camps.

Absorbing the nations of the "near abroad" (as Russia calls its neighbors), would mean having to deal with a lot of dissidents. That's what the Gulag (the Russian acronym for the prison camp system, or "The Chief Administration of Corrective Labor Camps and Colonies") was created for. It gets the troublemakers off the streets, permanently, as needed. Puts the fear of Moscow into the newly acquired citizens of the Russian State. It worked before, it can work again. So did taking over the Rhineland.

Patriots For Poland

As part of the recent agreement to allow U.S. THAAD anti-missile missiles to be based in Poland, is the stationing of an American Patriot anti-aircraft missile battery in Poland. Originally, Poland wanted to receive Patriot missile systems, with Polish crews running them. Sending an American battery instead was a compromise. That unit will arrive within the next four years.

The U.S. Army has ten of its Patriot anti-aircraft missile battalions. Each Patriot battalion has 12-24 launchers (3-6 batteries). Each battery is manned by about a hundred troops, and contains a radar, plus four launchers. A battery can fire two types of Patriot missile. The $3.3 million PAC 3 missile is smaller than the anti-aircraft version (PAC 2), thus a Patriot launcher can hold sixteen PAC 3 missiles, versus four PAC 2s. A PAC 2 missile weighs about a ton, a PAC 3 weighs about a third of that. The PAC 3 has a shorter range (about 20 kilometers) versus 70 kilometers for the anti-aircraft version.

While each Patriot launcher, loaded with PAC 3 missiles, can only defend against ballistic missiles approaching within 20 kilometers, the Patriot radar can detect targets out to a hundred kilometers. Two PAC 3 missiles are fired at each incoming ballistic missile, to increase the probability of a hit. The PAC 3 missile has its own radar, and uses it to track the incoming warhead, and execute a collision course.

Russian flotilla led by Carrier Admiral Kuznetsov heads for Syrian port

As the U.S. ans NATO awaits Moscow’s threatened reprisal for the treaty installing American missile interceptors at Redzikowo, on Poland’s Baltic coast – signed in Warsaw Wednesday - the Kremlin is striking back in the Middle East – hence

Military sources disclose that a powerful Russian naval contingent, led by the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov , left Murmansk on the Barents Sea Aug. 18 to dock at the Syrian Mediterranean port of Tartus Saturday, Aug. 23. It includes the Russian Navy’s biggest missile cruiser Moskva and at least four nuclear missile submarines.

At the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Syrian president Bashar Assad told reporters Thursday, Aug. 21, that he is considering a Russian request to deploy missiles in his country in view of Russian-Western tensions over the Georgian conflict, which he said had polarized East and West anew.

Assad signaled he would also be representing Tehran’s interests in his talks with Russian leaders. Jordan’s King Abdullah is on his way to join them later in the day.

Before the Russian flotilla departed Murmansk, Assad is reported by our sources as having given the nod for Tartus port’s conversion into a permanent Middle East base for Russia’s nuclear-armed warships.

Assad’s arrival coincided with a visit by a large Syrian military delegation Thursday at the Russian weapons manufacturing giant, the Kalinin Machines Plant, east of Moscow. Military sources report that this plant makes sophisticated anti-air missile systems, including the S-300 and the BUK M, for which Damascus is bidding.

The Syrian ruler has said he is seeking closer military cooperation with Russia. The deal emerging from his visit is expected to cover the Russian Navy’s use of Tartus in return for a mutual defense accord providing Syria with a Russian nuclear umbrella and generous terms for his arms purchases.

Aug. 17, Military sources first revealed Russia’s planned nuclear military deployments in the Middle East and Baltic to punish America for its missile deal with Poland and Georgia's attack in South Ossetia. They would included the installation of Iskandar surface missiles (nuclear-capable 200 km-range) in Syria and Kaliningrad.

Iran launches first satellite into orbit - EGG now on Russia

An Iranian news network IRNN showed footage of what it called a domestically-manufactured communications satellite named Safir-e Omid being launched in darkness, accompanied by patriotic hymns, Sunday, Aug. 17.

Reports from one Iranian source that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad attended the event. Our military sources stress that confirmation of Iran’s successful launch would represent a strategic breakthrough, testifying to Tehran’s ability to fire ballistic missiles possibly armed with nuclear warheads to distances of thousands of kilometers, against Israel and beyond; Europe and parts of Asia would also be in range. The launching would have paved the way for spy satellites.

If verified, Iran’s space achievement would offset one of Israel’s prime military assets, its superiority in space technology.

According to sources, Tehran caught both the CIA and Mossad by surprise. They knew Iran was working on a space program but not how close the Iranians were to placing a satellite in orbit.

Sources believe that the capsule was boosted by the Shehab-5 missile, whose range the Iranians boast is up to 5,000 km and, according to some military experts, reaches 7,000 km.

The Islamic Republic’s reported feat comes at a bad time for Moscow internationally. The Russians emphatically dismiss America’s argument for installing missile interceptors in Poland as a shield against Iranian ballistic missile attack, claiming they were aimed at Russia. The Kremlin accuses the Bush administration using this false claim as a pretext, because Iran had not so far developed a ballistic threat. Now, that proof may have been provided Sunday, Moscow will have to reconsider its position.

SEE:
POLAND TAKES THE SHIELD - TELL KREMLIN UP YOUR !

Ukraine offers satellite defence co-operation

Ukraine offers satellite defence
co-operation
with Europe and US

Ukraine inflamed mounting East-West tensions
yesterday by offering up a Soviet-built satellite facility
as part of the European missile defence system.

By Damien McElroy in Tbilisi

The proposal, made amid growing outrage among Russia's neighbours over its military campaign in Georgia, could see Ukraine added to Moscow's nuclear hitlist. A Russian general declared Poland a target for its arsenal after Warsaw signed a deal with Washington to host interceptor missiles for America's anti-nuclear shield.

The move came as the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, signed a cease-fire deal that sets the stage for a Russian troop withdrawal after more than a week of warfare with its neighbour Georgia.

The deal calls for both Russian and Georgian forces to pull back to positions they held before fighting erupted on August 8. As of last night, though, there was little apparent evidence of a Russian pull-out from the Georgian town of Gori, which Russian tanks and troops took last weekend. Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, insisted a broader withdrawal would be contingent on further security measures.

Just hours before Mr Medvedev put his signature to the ceasefire deal, Russian forces blew up a Georgian railway bridge on the main line west of the capital, Tbilisi, an act that critics interpreted as a malacious attempt to cripple the country's infrastructure. Moscow at first issued a denial, but television footage shot by the Reuters news agency clearly showed the bridge's twisted remains.

Ukraine said it was ready to give both Europe and America access to its missile warning systems after Russia earlier annulled a 1992 cooperation agreement involving two satellite tracking stations. Previously, the stations were part of Russia's early-warning system for missiles coming from Europe.

"The fact that Ukraine is no longer a party to the 1992 agreement allows it to launch active cooperation with European countries to integrate its information," a statement from the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said.

It follows a declaration earlier this week from Ukraine's pro-Western president, Viktor Yushchenko, that the Russian naval lease of the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Sebastopol would be scrapped if any vessels joined the conflict in Georgia.

The crisis over Russia's display of military might in Georgia has alarmed ex-Soviet satellites states in a broad arc from the Baltics to Central Asia. Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, all of which harbour bitter memories of Soviet occupation, have expressed solidarity with the Georgian position.

Yesterday President George W. Bush hailed what he saw as progress in resolving the Georgia crisis, describing the ceasefire agreement as "a hopeful step."

He reiterated, though, that the disputed regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia remained part of Georgia, despite Moscow's insistence that they should now be allowed to become part of Russia. "There's no room for debate on this matter," said Mr Bush. "The international community is clear that South Ossetia and Abkhazia are part of Georgia and the US fully recognises this reality."

Meanwhile, disturbing reports of abuse of ethnic Georgians in captured parts of the disputed region emerged. A group of captive soldiers were paraded in the streets of the South Ossetian capital, Tskinvali, and the bodies of at least 40 dead troops rotted in the sun.

Teams of ethnic Georgians, some under armed guard, were forced to clean the streets. It was the first apparent evidence of humiliation or abuse of Georgians in the Russian-controlled breakaway republic.

HOO-AH: POLAND TAKES THE SHIELD - TELL KREMLIN UP YOUR !

A top Russian general said Friday that Poland's agreement to accept a U.S. missile interceptor base exposes the ex-communist nation to attack, possibly by nuclear weapons, the Interfax news agency reported.

The statement by Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn is the strongest threat that Russia has issued against the plans to put missile defense elements in former Soviet satellite nations.

Poland and the United States on Thursday signed a deal for Poland to accept a missile interceptor base as part of a system the United States says is aimed at blocking attacks by rogue nations. Moscow, however, feels it is aimed at Russia's missile force.

"Poland, by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike—100 percent," Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, was quoted as saying.

He added, in clear reference to the agreement, that Russia's military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons "against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them." Nogovitsyn that would include elements of strategic deterrence systems, he said, according to Interfax.

At a news conference earlier Friday, Nogovitsyn had reiterated Russia's frequently stated warning that placing missile-defense elements in Poland and the Czech Republic would bring an unspecified military response. But his subsequent reported statement substantially stepped up a war of words.

U.S. officials have said the timing of the deal was not meant to antagonize Russian leaders at a time when relations already are strained over the recent fighting between Russia and Georgia over the separatist Georgian region of South Ossetia.

Russian forces went deep into Georgia in the fighting, raising wide concerns that Russia could be seeking to occupy parts of its small, pro-U.S. neighbor, which has vigorously lobbied to join NATO, or even to force its government to collapse.

"I think the Russian behavior over the last several days is generally concerning not only to the United States but to all of our European allies," said Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman, when asked about Russian threats against Poland as a result of the missile defense agreement.

He also suggested that earlier U.S. offers for broad cooperation with Moscow on the missile defense program may be reevaluated considering the latest developments.

Under the agreement that Warsaw and Washington reached Thursday, Poland will accept a U.S. missile interceptor base.

Washington says the planned system, which is not yet operational, is needed to protect the U.S. and Europe from possible attacks by missile-armed "rogue states" like Iran. The Kremlin, however, feels it is aimed at Russia's missile force and warns it will worsen tensions.

In an interview on Poland's news channel TVN24, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the United States agreed to help augment Poland's defenses with Patriot missiles in exchange for placing 10 missile defense interceptors in the Eastern European country.

He said the deal also includes a "mutual commitment" between the two nations to come to each other's assistance "in case of trouble."

That clause appeared to be a direct reference to Russia.

Poland has all along been guided by fears of a newly resurgent Russia, an anxiety that has intensified with Russia's offensive in Georgia. In past days, Polish leaders said that fighting justified Poland's demands that it get additional security guarantees from Washington in exchange for allowing the anti-missile base on its soil.

"Simply the existence of this installation increases Poland's security," Polish President Lech Kaczynski said Friday.

U.S. missile shield plan nearly final, Czechs say

U.S. missile shield plan nearly final,
Czechs say

PRAGUE: The Czech Republic expects to finalize details this week in Washington of a plan to play host to part of a U.S. missile defense shield, Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek said Monday.

Topolanek is due to meet President George W. Bush on Wednesday to discuss the shield, which has drawn strong criticism from Russia. Bush and Topolanek will also discuss a plan to drop a U.S. visa requirement for Czechs.

The U.S. administration wants to deploy 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic as part of a global shield against long-range ballistic missiles.

"Talks on the controversial issues" regarding the radar station "are ready for completion during my visit to Washington," Topolanek said at a news conference.

But he said that it would take additional time to sign the agreements, and that the Czech Republic would coordinate its steps with Poland.

The United States says the shield will protect it and its allies from attack by what it calls "rogue" states, including Iran and North Korea. The plan has been strongly opposed by Russia, which regards it as a threat to its security.

The acting under secretary of state for arms control, John Rood, said last week he was very optimistic about the negotiations with the Polish and Czech governments, but he did not say when they could be completed.

Topolanek said both the Czech Republic and Poland wanted to complete the deals in time for a NATO summit meeting in Bucharest in April.

The Czechs have been pushing for a NATO endorsement of the missile defense plan because they see it as a potential boost for the alliance. Alliance approval would also help the government ratify the treaty in the Czech Parliament.

On visas, Czech and American officials are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding that will end a U.S. visa requirement for Czech visitors, possibly by the end of this year.

Background - Poland Says It Has Agreed to US Shield

Poland Says It Has Agreed to US Shield

Poland Says It Has Agreed

to US Shield
By DESMOND BUTLER

Poland said Friday it has reached an agreement in principle with the United States on plans to install a missile defense system on Polish territory.

Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski says that after meetings with U.S. officials, he is satisfied that the United States will deal with security problems that Poland wanted addressed as part of an eventual deal.

The announcement should add momentum to a project the Bush administration has said it hopes to start building this year. The project, a major source of tension with Russia, had looked stalled since the Polish government of Donald Tusk sought new demands after taking office in November.

Sikorski did not outline the terms of the deal, but in a joint appearance with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice after a working lunch, the two officials suggested that the U.S. would help with Polish air defenses, as Poland had sought.

"We understand that there is a desire for defense modernization in Poland, and particularly for air defense modernization in Poland," Rice said. "This is something that we support because it will make our ally, Poland, more capable, it will make Poland, as the foreign minister has said, more able to operate with us."

Sikorski said that negotiators would continue to work on the details of an agreement that would allow the U.S. to install 10 interceptors as part of a long- range European missile defense system.

"We are not at the end of the road as regards negotiations. We are in the middle of the road," he said. "We have an agreement in principle."

He sought to address concerns about the U.S. air defense aid that are likely to be expressed by Russia, which has already strongly objected to the missile defense plans. Russia has threatened to retarget nuclear missiles at Poland to counter what it sees as a U.S. attempt to undermine the Russian military deterrent.

"The reinforced Polish air defenses are not directed against anybody," Sikorski said. "They are to enable Poland to be a stronger NATO ally with the United States, to enable Poland to take part in operations, in out-of-area operations, in joint operations."

But the air defense system that Poland has asked for help in building would seem to be aimed at addressing worries about Russia's threats. Polish officials have previously expressed interest in acquiring short- and mid-range air defenses—Patriot or THAAD missiles—from the United States.

The United States has dismissed Russian concerns about the proposed long range missile defense system, saying it is intended to protect Western countries from missiles fired from Iran and would be impotent against Russia's massive arsenal.

"It is true that the United States once had a Strategic Defense Initiative, a program that was intended to deal with the question of the Russian strategic nuclear threat," Rice said, referring to a Reagan-era program also known as Star Wars. "This is not that program. This is not the son of that program. This is not the grandson of that program."

If the two sides reach a deal, it would vindicate Tusk and Sikorski's strategy of asking more from Washington in exchange for Poland's support in military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the missile defense system.

The previous Polish government of former Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who opened talks early last year, firmly supported the plan without the additional demands.