Bloomberg White House
bid would need more than money
Mayor Michael Bloomberg's possible presidential run would be driven by his personal fortune and a bipartisan message, but a successful campaign would turn on selling a liberal record in at least a handful of conservative states to win the 270 electoral votes he needs to take the White House, political professionals say.
Halfway through his second term as mayor, Bloomberg's six largely successful years running the nation's largest city lend weight to a possible third-party candidacy, but could also weigh him down.
He managed against tough odds to ban smoking and trans fats, shepherded the city through the post-9/11 period and into an era of low murder rates, and carved out a role as an innovator on education and environmental issues.
But he's also leading a national campaign against illegal guns that includes the city suing gun dealers in some states, and has changed his party affiliation not once, but twice -- from Democrat to Republican to unaffiliated. And while he opposed Gov. Eliot Spitzer's plan to give illegal immigrants driver's licenses, he this week described some of the declared candidates' more conservative positions on immigration as "xenophobic."
"What red states does Mike Bloomberg win?" asked Doug Muzzio, a political science professor at Baruch College. "Florida, maybe? Ohio, maybe? Yeah, he's got a billion dollars, but he's still got to run on his record, and he's got problems -- he's pro-choice, pro-gay unions, pro-real strong gun control. Every gun owner in the world hates him."
Monday, Bloomberg is a guest at a meeting in Oklahoma with 16 prominent Democrats and Republicans who are calling on the parties to eschew partisan gridlock. Also invited is Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), who has said he would be interested in running as the mayor's vice president.
"We feel some group has to start to build bridges and form coalitions with whoever is elected in the Congress and the White House," said former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn, one of the organizers. " ... and while it could be that someone in this group or someone from outside it could run for president, that's not what this meeting is about. We're glad the mayor is coming, but this is not about his candidacy."
Such a candidacy would be "a $1 billion campaign," said Deputy Mayor Kevin Sheekey, a key political adviser who is laying the groundwork for a possible national race.
Bloomberg's chances likely would hinge on a difficult strategy in which he wins the more liberal Northeastern and West Coast states rich with electoral votes, plus some moderate Midwestern states such as Ohio. But even then he would fall short of 270 electoral votes, said Jason Gimpel, a government professor at the University of Maryland.
"The simple mathematics are against it," Gimpel said. "I just can't see a scenario where an independent candidacy succeeds. Money is important but it's not everything. You have to have some electoral appeal."
Indeed, even Bloomberg acknowledges the history of self-financed candidates is checkered.
"I think one of things that you can take comfort in if you're worried about people buying elections, is that statistics show that wealthy people who self-finance don't win with any greater frequency than those who have to go out and raise money from others," he said on Christmas Day.
In fact, "most rich guys who run for office and spend a gazillion dollars usually lose," said Jennifer Steen, a Boston College professor who has written books on self-financed candidates.
Among the most notable exceptions? Bloomberg. Steen says while history is littered with wealthy vanity campaigns, few have spent as much as Bloomberg has, and is clearly willing to do, should he decide to jump into the race.
He spent $74 million on his 2001 campaign for mayor and $85 million in 2005. Steve Forbes and Ross Perot each spent about $70 million total both times they ran, Forbes in 1996 and 2000 and Perot in 1992 and 1996.
Bloomberg and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine "are in a class by themselves," Steen said. But she pointed out that despite the continued Bloomberg speculation, the meeting in Oklahoma and a sense that the presidential field in both parties could remain unsettled for some time, "the majority of the electorate still identifies as a Democrat or a Republican.
"I just don't see it working," she said of a Bloomberg independent candidacy, "but I'm not putting money against it in Vegas or anything, either. It's a wildcard."
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