Shortened campaign calendar shows it's (unexpected) impact

Shortened campaign calendar shows it's (unexpected) impact
By Tom Baxter
Southern Political Report
January 20, 2008

Columbia -- This should be a gloomy day for Democrats, although it may take another few days for the bad news to sink in.

Before Saturday's South Carolina Republican Primary, it appeared Republicans had the deeper muddle to wade through before settling on a presidential nominee, with three or four candidates still in contention, while the Democratic race appears to have settled into a comparatively simple contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Some have even dared speculate about a brokered Republican convention.

As Sunday dawned here in the Palmetto State capital with no trace of the rain and snow that confronted primary voters the day before, there was a real possibility that something like the reverse could happen.

If his victories here and in New Hampshire propel McCain into a victory in the Jan. 29 Florida primary – and early indications are that he is overtaking Rudy Giuliani in the Sunshine State – there could be a strong impulse among Republicans to come to a consensus around him.

If that were to happen, Republicans would find themselves with a candidate whom many of them detest, but who is clearly separated in most voters' minds from the unpopular Bush administration, who would have demonstrated his ability to win in the South and attract independents, veterans and older voters.

Meanwhile, Saturday's Nevada caucuses didn't do much to settle the Democratic race. With her victory there and still holding the lead in Florida, Clinton has managed to hang on to her front-runner status, but she faces some of the most perilous days of her campaign in the run-up to next Saturday's South Carolina Democratic Primary.

The polls indicate Clinton is likely to lose this state to Obama, but it's how she loses that matters.

More than a year ago, a young African-American Democratic activist from Charleston named Anthony Bryant observed to me that how Clinton handled her race against Obama here, win or lose, could have a big impact on her general election changes later this year. That prediction now seems right on the money, and no less so if you reverse the names Clinton and Obama in the previous sentence. Monday night's Congressional Black Caucus-CNN debate in Myrtle Beach looms large for both candidates.

Despite his dismal showing in Nevada, there's also a possibility John Edwards could do better than expected here, further complicating the Democratic nomination picture. The overall upshot is that there is now a real possibility – which would have seemed highly unlikely a few days ago – that the Republicans will settle their nomination and wheel into the general election campaign before the Democrats.

This year's shortened calendar has facilitated these dramatic twists in the in campaign story line.

It was thought that the speeded-up schedule of primaries and caucuses would help those who could raise the most money before the year began. If you only look at Mitt Romney lead in the delegate count that might still seem plausible.

But what the shortened calendar has really done is to dramatically increase the bounce from each succeeding caucus and primary, giving McCain huge momentum coming out of New Hampshire, and reducing the number of days in which his better funded opponents can translate money into ad buys.

The shortened calendar gave McCain, who campaigned here eight years ago and was already a known quantity to voters, an edge over Mike Huckabee, who may have miscalculated by contesting Michigan before he focused on this state.

It could also hurt Clinton if Obama wins big here next Saturday, only three days before the vote in Florida. In both parties' races, the outcome in Florida is likely to have a big impact on the humongous Tsunami Tuesday primary seven days later – much more than could be made up by ad buys in so many states.

Of course, a Giuliani victory in Florida and a disappointing showing by McCain could throw the Republican race back into a cocked hat. A shorted calendar which has produced so many surprises could still produce a few more.