Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4%
Alaska
U.S. Senate
Republican Primaries
Murkowski 31 %
Palin 55 %
U.S. Senate
Republican Primaries
Murkowski 31 %
Palin 55 %
Palin would crush Daddy's Little Girl in a primary. Remember, Lisa Murkowski was appointed to the seat by her father when he was elected to his ill-fated term as governor.
Palin's successful primary challenge to father Murkowski was aided in great part by the backlash to that nepotism. The voters passed a ballot initiative stripping the governor of the power to make such appointments in the future. So given a credible Republican challenger, Murkowski melts.
Since Palin vanquished Murkowski's father, there would be some poetry to also taking out his daughter, but I suspect Murkowski would be vulnerable to other top Republicans. I'd guess at this point that even if Palin passes on the Senate, Murkowski will have to fight for her party's nomination.
As for general election matchups:
Alaska Governor
Palin (R) 55
Knowles (D) 38
Palin (R) 55
Knowles (D) 38
There's no indication that Knowles will run again, but as a stand-in for "strong Democrat", he still fares poorly against Palin.
Alaska still sees starbursts. Indeed, while her approval rating is off its highs, it's still pretty darn strong at 60-38.
Last time we polled the state, October 28-30, she was at 65-35. So it's down eight points, but she has a long way to fall before she'd be considered in trouble.
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