European nations are alarmed at the recent increase in probes, via the Internet, of public utilities (electricity, water, sewage, transportation). Cyber War experts are divided on whether this is just the next big thing in criminal activity (finding out how to shut down utilities via the Internet, then using the threat of that to extort money), or military Cyber War operations, scouting utilities in anticipation of damaging them in wartime or a time of crises.
A lot of these probes can be traced back to the usual sources (China, Eastern Europe and the Middle East), the places where many of the Internet based criminal gangs hide out. So far this year, there has been an increase in probes, but not attacks. At least as far as anyone knows. However, the most professional Internet attacks are unnoticed (as the intruder gets away with data, or a deep understanding of how the target site operates, and thus a good knowledge of how to take it down.) Utilities, and large corporations in general, are being urged (and sometimes ordered) to check, and double check, the adequacy of their Internet defenses.
When the history of the Russian invasion of Georgia is written, one of the most revealing discussions may center on the role of cyber warfare.
Some questions that will need answering: Just when did Russian hackers begin their attacks on the Georgian websites. Just what role did NATO — especially Estonian and American — cyber warriors have in guiding the Georgian response. Was the enormous three-week attack on Estonia last April from Russia a practice run for the Georgian attack?
When the Russians crippled Estonia’s cyber infrastructure, NATO dispatched top cyber war experts to investigate and to improve the Estonians’ electronic defenses.
It seems reasonable that, in the event of a true combined operation against the Georgians, NATO dispatched cyber experts to help though I haven’t confirmed that yet. There are numerous reports that Estonia has sent cyber warriors to help the Georgians combat both countries historic nemesis.
Official and unofficial Pentagon spokesmen refused to comment on whether the US might or might not be assisting the Georgians in their efforts to protect their Internet infrastructure.
However, one source said that if any US agency would be helping the Georgians it would be the Department of Homeland Security. The reason: if the Russians were to learn the Pentagon was assisting the Georgians they could claim the US was waging cyber war against them.
And US policy is that attacks on our computer systems can be considered an act of war, a logic the Russians would be sure to follow. 
If DHS is assisting the Georgians then we can make it very clear that US efforts are purely defensive. Also, DHS is home to the Computer Emergency Response Team.
All this raises questions about the US approach to cyber warfare — not defensive and security measures, but the willingness to use the web to attack an enemy to blunt or cripple their offensive capabilities.
As one of my wittier sources put it earlier today: Are the Georgians really more afraid of a cyber attack than of all those missiles raining down on their heads. The global World Wide Web may be incredibly resilient, but local web connections can be seriously disrupted by those old timey capabilities known as kinetics. Destroy phone or cable connections –easily done with artillery or bombs — and you’ve made it a lot harder to rebuild and reconnect than would a denial of service attack. On top of the destruction, an enemy can send a much clearer and simpler signal than can be done through cyber attacks. On the other hand, it is the very ambiguity of a cyber attack that can make it such a powerful tool in the times before a conflict erupts. Ask the Russians and the Estonians.
European nations are alarmed at the recent increase in probes, via the Internet, of public utilities (electricity, water, sewage, transportation). Cyber War experts are divided on whether this is just the next big thing in criminal activity (finding out how to shut down utilities via the Internet, then using the threat of that to extort money), or military Cyber War operations, scouting utilities in anticipation of damaging them in wartime or a time of crises.
