Governor's races are odd birds. Of all the races I follow -- House, Senate, Presidential, even state legislative -- they tend to be the least partisan. The reasons are similar to the reasons that Presidential races often seem so issues-less, especially when compared to the legislative races: People don't look at their chief executive and see a bundle of issues; they see a leader.
This is more pronounced at the local and state level, where they just see someone who fixes potholes and makes sure their kid gets funding for afterschool football.
On top of this, these races are going to be very much subject to the performance of the economy over the next few years.
In 2002, Democrats and Republicans alike suffered as chief executives were forced to make cuts in state budgets during the 2000-2001 semi-recession.
Given the full-blown recession/semi-depression we are likely headed towards, there could be a similar effect.
So anyway, theses are very preliminary. Right now if I had to guess, I'd say Republicans would net one or two Governor's mansions, bringing them to 23 or 24 seats. I've bolded the ones that I think seem especially primed to change hands.
Given the large number of open seats and undeclared candidates, I'm even less certain about these than the Senate ratings (which is pretty darned uncertain). This is especially true of open races that I've labelled uncompetitive, since really no one can call an open Governor's race uncompetitive this early. But just watch me. Because I'm dangerous like that.
More below the fold.
Not Presently Competitve R
AK-Gov: (Sarah Palin) Andrew Sullivan once fantasized that Sarah Palin would have trouble trying to survive in Alaska. It's a pipe dream. For the love of God, a convicted Republican felon nearly won re-election there, and Don Young ended up winning fairly handily. Fuggedaboudit.
FL-Gov: (Charlie Crist) Crist presently sports an approval rating of around 65%, which I'm sure he's out-and-out thrilled about. Normally a Florida race would be one that I would say could swing either way, but you have to like Crist's odds right now.
ID-Gov: (Butch Otter) This was close in 2006 when it was open, but it is hard to imagine it being close this time. Pretty much everyone except the Club for Growth hated Bill Sali, his opponent was a former Republican who campaigned on tax cuts, and he still only lost 51-49. As a complete aside . . . anyone else notice how all Idaho politicians seem to have names that sound vaguely like gay porn stars? Butch Otter, Dirk Kempthorne, Mike Crapo. The only one with a normal name was Larry Craig.
NE-Gov: (Open). You know, the thing I miss most about my old blog is coming up with childish comments about candidates with names like Dave Heineman, Chandler Woodcock, and Dave Heineman. I was crushed when Dick Swett didn't run for Senate in 2008. But whatever. The bottom line is, Democrats win the Nebraska Governor's office when Republican governors screw up or raise taxes. That hasn't happened here, and I think Obama's 45% is about the ceiling for Democrats right now. We'll see who get nominated.
Potentially Competitive R
AL-Gov: (Open). Bob Riley (teenage wasteland, whoa yeah) is term-limited. The Democratic bench in Alabama is pretty thin, but Democrats can still win in the state. Artur Davis is running, leaving a very uncompetitive open seat in AL-07, but given how Obama went over here I'll believe it when I see it. I'll wait and see who the Republicans put up, but you'd have to like their odds of holding on.
AZ-Gov (Brewer). This state is trending Democrat more slowly than people think, and many of the recent gains in Congress have been due to local conditions. We actually had a decent year in the statehouse in 2008. I don't know how good a pol Brewer is, and the Republican legislature might push through some divisive stuff that hurts her popularity, but for now, there's only the potential for competition here.
CT-Gov (Rell). Rell no longer sports an approval rating of 105% like she did in the 2006 cycle, but she's still pretty darned popular. She's apparently revving up the re-election campaign, and it is pretty hard to imagine her being defeated. But it is still Connecticut.
SC-Gov (Open). I really have a hard time seeing this being all that competitive after the last couple of open Senate races, but Dems have won the governor's mansion in recent years. We'll see how recruiting goes, but you have to like the GOP's odds.
TX-Gov (Perry). If Perry runs again, I think this will be a tough race for the GOP. I'm not sure that Texans want 14 years of Rick. If he retires or loses in the primary to Kay Bailey Hutchison, its less competitive. You'll hear a lot of noise about the race from the Kossacks, just like you did in 2002, and just like you did about beating Cornyn.
VT-Gov (Douglas). He still continues to be popular, and has won in some horrendous Republican years. If he retires or runs for Senate, I would imagine that the Dems will get this one back.
Competitive R
CA-Gov (Open). You have to like DiFi's odds of winning the seat she lost to Pete Wilson 20 years ago. Still, there are some potentially serious candidates on the Republican side. Two surprising facts about California: Democrats have only controlled the Governor's mansion for 20 of the last 110 years, and no Democrat not named "Brown" has served two full terms since the 1850s. These are the types of things I carry around in my head, people.
GA-Gov (Open). I think there will be some type of a competitive race here. Some brilliant-sounding guy named John Oxendine is in the running, but there might be a nasty primary between him and Light Governor Casey Cagle. Dems have a former General/Labor Commissioner, who could help them get rural whites back.
HI-Gov (Open). Popular Governor Linda Lingle will be term limited. It's hard to see how Republicans keep this; the cupboard is pretty bare there.
MN-Gov (T-Paw (?)). Pawlenty can run again, or he can concentrate on a Presidential bid, or try to do both. Democrats have been shut out of the Governor's mansion for 20 years here, so you'd have to like their odds in an open race. Either way, unless the brand makes a comeback here, expect a competitive race either way.
NV-Gov (Gibbons (?)). Governor Gibbons is mired in all manner of scandals, and has an approval rating in the 40s. There's even a recall effort going on. Not looking good for him. Right now it is looking like Republicans' best chance is to prim
RI-Gov (Open). Republicans have managed to hold the Governor's mansion for 16 years in what is arguably the bluest state in the nation. You'd have to think their run is about to end, now that Democrats have stopped running Myrth York.
SD-Gov (Open). Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin may be making a run for an executive slot, in which case you have to think this is a pretty competitive race, even in a very red state.
Competitive D Races
KS-Gov (Open) -- Sam Brownback is running for Governor. He's reasonably popular, and will be running in a very red state where Democrats don't have much of a base. Hard to see this not being at least competitive for Republicans.
ME-Gov (Open) -- I know, I know. But the GOP actually probably would have won here in 2006 of all years if they hadn't nominated a social conservative (in Maine of all places). It's a quirky state, so I say competitive.
MI-Gov (Open) -- It's been rough in Michigan, but Republicans have a couple of statewide figures in Mike Cox and Terri Lynn Land, which pretty much guarantees at least a competitive race. Granholm isn't particularly popular, so that won't help any.
OK-Gov (Open) -- Governor Henry is term-limited in a state that has been steadily trending Republican, even in the last few years. Dan Boren has said he won't run for Governor this cycle, so you have to like the Republicans' odds, assuming that this time around there's no cockfighting referndum on the ballot and we don't nominate a Christian conservative candidate who explodes in an on-camera bust of profanity right before the election. Regardless, this will almost certainly be competitive.
PA-Gov (Open) -- The Democrats' bench is surprsingly thin here, and Republicans have a good number of candidates with statewide experience. This should make for a good race.
TN-Gov (Open) -- This state swung heavily to Republicans in 2008. The awesomely-named Republican Congressman Zach Wamp is considering running. Have to like his odds, especially with Harold Ford Jr. tied up at the DLC.
VA-Gov (Open (?)) -- Are the Democrats really going to nominate Terry McAuliffe? Really?? Maybe there is a God. Anyway, the Republicans have been having problems in the state lately, to say the least, but they have an articulate candidate who will be difficult to beat, while the Democrats will be having a primary among three pretty mediocre candidates. If Tim Kaine is escorted off to some cabinet position, there won't be much to stop a Republican rebound here (yes, I know he can't run, but he wouldn't be spending a whole lot of time on the campaign trail like Mark Warner did for him during his 2005 comeback).
WI-Gov (Doyle (?)) -- Governor Jim Doyle seems bound and determined to run for re-election, but he only got 53% of the vote in 2006, and he's got a pretty mediocre 49-47% approval rating. Definitely vulnerable against the right Republican.
WY-Gov (Open) -- If you know anything at all about politics, you'll understand this rating.
Potentially Competitive Seats
IL-Gov (Blago (?)) -- Assuming he's not in prison, Governor Blago is free to run for re-election. If he is, or if he doesn't run, Democrats' odds improve markedly. Even then Republicans have to field a candidate, which will be no small task here.
MD-Gov (O'Malley) -- Marty O'Malley doesn't have a particularly high approval rating; earlier this year he was actually less popular than Bush. But unless Former Governor Ehrlich makes a go of it, this won't be competitive. O'Malley's ratings have improved of late, so maybe even then . . .
MA-Gov (Patrick) -- Patrick has succeded in getting his approval rating up to 51% in MA. If he continues, he'll be impossible to defeat. If not, he still might be impossible to defeat. The cupboard is pretty bare for Republicans in a very blue state.
NJ-Gov (Corzine) -- New Jersey always seems to play Lucy to the GOP's Charlie Brown. But once again, polling shows a competitive race for a fairly unpopular Democratic incumbent. The US Attorney for NJ is in the race, and is running pretty close to Corzine, who is at 42%.
NY-Gov (Patterson) -- A lot depends on whether or not Rudy runs. If he does, it could be close, though Patterson will probably have to make a mistake that puts a dent in his 59% approval rating.
OH-Gov (Strickland) -- Strickland sports a tepid 45% approval rating in this swing state, which pretty much automatically puts him on the watch list. With the trouble the economy is likely to go through in the next few years, I'd be sweating it if I were him. The GOP has had a rough go the last few years, and only holds one statewide office right now: Auditor.
OR-Gov (Open) -- Gov. Kulongoski leaves office and isn't terribly popular. The Dems have controlled the Governor's office since the 1986 elections, which would seem to open them up to a "change" campaign. But the Republican cupboard is pretty bare here. Secretary of State Bradbury will be a good candidate for the Democrats in a state that ain't getting any redder these days.
Not Presently Competitive D
AR-Gov (Beebe) -- 75% approval rating. It's a red state at the Presidential level, but as blue as Massachusetts at the state level, for historic reasons (AR didn't have a populist/establishment split in its Democratic party in the 30s and 40s, so the Republicans didn't have a faction to take over in the 50s and 60s). Better off concentrating on Senator Lambert-Lincoln.
CO-Gov (Ritter) -- Not above 70% anymore, but still 2:1 approving.
IA-Gov (Culver) -- Chet's well above 50%, and this state has trended blue of late.
NH-Gov (Lynch) -- So like, you know how if you play in 3d edition Dungeons & Dragons and your character can attain Godhood eventually? Er . . . me neither. But if that were the case, I think it would pretty much describe Governor Lynch's standing in New Hampshire.
NM-Gov (Open) -- The Republicans got wiped out here in 2008. Not gonna happen.
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