http://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2007/09/potential-impac.html?csp=34

Potential impact of Fred Thompson's entry into the race

by Frank Newport


Fred Thompson will spice up the race for the Republican nomination for president this week – with his appearance on the Jay Leno show and then his formal announcement on Thursday in Iowa that he is running for president.

Thompson’s appearances this week come as no surprise to anyone. His interest in the presidency has been so well known that we have included him in our USA Today/Gallup trial heat polls of Republicans since late March. And he’s done quite well in all of those polls. Thompson received 13% of the GOP vote in that very first March poll, immediately establishing himself in third place – behind Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Now, in our latest poll in August, Thompson's in second place at 19% -- behind Giuliani, but ahead of McCain and Mitt Romney.

I think it’s reasonable that Thompson may move up further over the weekend, given the publicity that will surround his “official” announcement. The key question is how close he will come to supplanting Rudy Giuliani as the front-runner. In the last August poll, there was a 13% point gap separating the two men. We’ll see as the dust settles by next week whether that gap has diminished significantly.

(Of course, there is a Republican debate sponsored by Fox News Wednesday night in New Hampshire. And any time candidates get together before a camera, there is the possibility of a major gaffe or attention-generating event that could shake up the race. John McCain has been more and more direct in his criticisms of his fellow Republicans as he tries a new strategy to shake up his “on the decline” campaign. It would not be unreasonable to find McCain coming out swinging, so to speak, at the debate.)

Thompson has some hidden strengths. An important Gallup analysis – reported here last week – shows that even at this point only 56% of Republicans know enough about Thompson to be able to rate him. That compares to 91% who have an opinion about Giuliani. When we shrank the sample down just to those Republicans who knew Giuliani, Thompson, McCain and Romney, lo and behold Giuliani’s lead fell away and Thompson led the pack.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that Thompson will become the front runner as he becomes better known. But it does suggest at least the possibility that he will gain and that Giuliani will drop on a relative basis as the latter's name identification advantage disappears.

We also know that Giuliani does less well among highly religious Republicans. Thompson does better. In fact the lead between Giuliani and Thompson is only 4 points among Republicans who attend church every week. This could have a bearing on the inclinations of Republican voters in some of the early primary states.