Thompson Sees First Poll Lead in S.C.

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Thompson Sees First Poll Lead in S.C.

By - John Boyanoski
(August 15, 2007)

The still not-yet-a-candidate of 2008 has grabbed his first South Carolina poll lead, which could have a huge impact on the 2008 race for the White House.

Former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee led all Republicans with 22 percent, while U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton led Democratic candidates with 36 percent, according to a Public Policy Polling survey released Wednesday. Clinton has led most South Carolina polls during the campaign, but this is the first for Thompson, who has been slowly building his numbers and support since the spring.

"This is very significant," said David Woodard, a political science professor at Clemson University. "But I am not surprised by it. He is a Southerner and that appeals to the base here, plus has a strong appeal with the Christian right."

Among the 749 Republican respondents, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was second with 18 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 17 percent.

Chip Felkel, a Greenville-based Republican political consultant, said those are significant numbers for those campaigns as well. Not many people have been giving Giuliani a chance in South Carolina because he doesn't really appeal to staunch conservatives, but he has consistently polled first or second, he said. Meanwhile, Romney has struggled to get above 15 percent despite heavy campaigning, so it's big news that he is moving up, Felkel said.

Felkel wondered how much of Thompson's victory, though, had to do with his own candidacy, rather than voter discontent with the rest of the Republican field. Felkel said he feels Thompson's push has a lot to do with the struggles of U.S. Sen. John McCain, who came in at 11 percent in the poll. McCain had been in the lows 30s in the spring.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee came in with 7 percent; U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas with 3 percent; U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas with 2 percent, and U.S. Reps. Duncan Hunter of California and Tom Tancredo of Colorado with 1 percent rounded out the Republican field.

Among 436 Democratic respondents, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois finished second to Clinton with 33 percent. Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina was the only other Democrat to get double digits when he snared 12 percent. U.S. Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson had 3 percent, while U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich had 1 percent.

However, Obama grabbed almost 55 percent of the black voters in the state, which is significant because it is unlikely a Democrat will win South Carolina in 2008, but its January Democratic primary is seen as important because it is the first primary state with a significant black population.

Clinton grabbed 29 percent of the black vote, according to the poll.

John Boyanoski can be reached at jboyanoski@scpols.com