Thompson Catches Giuliani in Latest Harris Poll

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2007/07/18/thompson-catches-giuliani-in-latest-harris-poll/


July 18, 2007, 10:03 pm
Thompson Catches Giuliani in Latest Harris Poll
Matt Phillips breaks down the latest Harris Interactive poll.

Though not yet an official candidate, actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is now in a statistical dead heat with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani atop the pack of potential Republican presidential nominees, the latest survey from Harris Interactive shows.


Thompson
With 29% of Republican primary or caucus voters saying they’d be most likely to vote for Mr. Thompson, he leads Mr. Giuliani by just one percentage point, according to the July survey. Mr. Thompson’s edge is within the 4.2-percentage-point margin of error on the question, and thus not conclusive, but his months-long surge in popularity is not in dispute. Since the poll Harris Interactive published in May, Mr. Thompson has risen by 11 percentage points among respondents. At the same time, Mr. Giuliani has slid by 10 percentage points since May, when 38% of Republican primary and caucus voters said he would likely get their vote.

Perhaps best known for his portrayal of no-nonsense District Attorney Arthur Branch on the hit NBC series “Law and Order,” Mr. Thompson served as a senator from 1994 to 2003. He has been taking steps — including fundraising — that leave open the possibility of a presidential run. And while he has not yet made an official announcement, his presence has caused a stir among the ranks of Republicans. His Harris Poll ratings this month among potential GOP primary voters put him 12 percentage points ahead of Arizona Sen. John McCain, who was once considered a Republican front-runner. Of the Republican primary voters polled in July, 17% responded that they would be most likely to vote for McCain. Mr. Thompson also leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the top fundraiser in the GOP race, by 20 percentage points.

Meanwhile, in the Democratic race, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois slipped further behind Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York in July, as more than one-third — 35% — of Democratic primary and caucus voters said she would most likely get their vote. Out of the same pool of people, 28% said they would most likely vote for Mr. Obama, that’s down from 32% in June.

The most recent online poll was conducted July 6-13. In it, Harris surveyed 2,225 adults, out of whom 822 said they would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and 560 said they would vote in a primary or caucus for Republicans. Questions asked just of potential Democratic primary or caucus voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Questions put to potential Republican primary or caucus voters have a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.