South Korean military declares emergency alert after Kim Jong-il's death

 

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) on Monday placed all military units on emergency alert following the news of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's death.

The JCS said it called an emergency meeting of officials handling crisis management and operations just after noon Monday (0300 GMT), after the North Korean media reported Kim's death.


Kyodo reporting Japan also convening emergency security meeting after announcement by Pyongyang of Kim Jong-il's death.

Wikileaks reveals plans for North Korean collapse

 
  
China knows less about and has less influence over its close ally North Korea than is usually presumed and is likely to eventually accept a reunified peninsula under South Korean rule, according to U.S. diplomatic files leaked to the WikiLeaks website.

The Cables, though they were mostly encrypted e-mails - paint a picture of three countries struggling to understand an isolated, hard-line regime in the face of a dearth of information and indicate American and South Korean diplomats' reliance on China's analysis and interpretation.

The release of the documents, which included discussions of contingency plans for the regime's collapse and speculation about when that might come, follows new tensions in the region. 

North Korea unleashed a fiery artillery barrage on a South Korean island that killed four people a week ago and has since warned that joint U.S.-South Korean naval drills this week are pushing the peninsula to the "brink of war."

The shelling comes on the heels of a slew of other provocative acts: An illegal nuclear test and several missile tests, the torpedoing of a South Korean warship and, most recently, an announcement that in addition to its plutonium program, it may also be pursuing the uranium path to a nuclear bomb.

The memos give a window into a period prior to the latest tensions, but they paint a picture of three countries struggling to understand isolated and unpredictable North Korea.

In the cables, China sometimes seems unaware of or uncertain about issues ranging from who will succeed North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to the regime's uranium enrichment plans and its nuclear test, suggesting that the North plays its cards close to its chest even with its most important ally.

Questioned about the enriched uranium program in June last year, Chinese officials said they believed that was program was "only in an initial phase" - a characterization that now appears to have been a gross underestimate.

China is Pyongyang's closest ally - Beijing fought on the northern side of the Korean War and its aid props up the current regime - and its actions have often served to insulate North Korea from foreign pressure. It has repeatedly opposed harsh economic sanctions and responded to the latest crises by repeating calls for a return to long-stalled, six-nation denuclearization talks that the North has rejected.

But China would appear to have little ability to stop a collapse and less influence over the authorities in Pyongyang than is widely believed, South Korea's then-vice foreign minister, Chun Yung-woo, is quoted telling American Ambassador Kathleen Stephens in February.

China lacks the will to push Pyongyang to change its behavior, according to Chun, but Beijing will not necessarily oppose the U.S. and South Korea in the case of a North Korean collapse.

China "would be comfortable with a reunified Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the US in a 'benign alliance' as long as Korea was not hostile towards China," Chun said.

Economic opportunities in a reunified Korea could further induce Chinese acquiescence, he said.

The diplomatic cables warn, however, that China would not accept the presence of U.S. troops north of the demilitarized zone that currently forms the North-South border.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said China would not comment specifically on the cables.

"China consistently supports dialogue between the North and South sides of the Korean peninsula to improve their relations," Hong said at a regularly scheduled news conference.

In the leaked cable, Chun predicts the government in Pyongyang would last no more than three years following the death of ailing leader Kim Jong Il, who is seeking to transfer power to his youngest son Kim Jong Un, a political ingenue in his 20s.

Chun also dismisses the possibility of Chinese military intervention if North Korea descended into chaos.

Despite that, China is preparing to handle any outbreaks of unrest along the border that could follow a collapse of the regime. Chinese officials say they could deal with up to 300,000 refugees, but might have to seal the border to maintain order, the memos say, citing an unidentified representative of an international aid group.

Chinese officials are also quoted using mocking language in reference to North Korea, pointing to tensions between the two neighbors in contrast to official statements underscoring strong historical ties.

Then-Deputy Foreign Minister He Yafei is quoted as telling a U.S. official in April 2009 that Pyongyang was acting like a "spoiled child" by staging a missile test in an attempt to achieve its demand of bilateral talks with Washington.

South Korea doubles number of K-9 howitzers on Yeonpyeong Island

 A concrete structure in the K-9 Marine artillery base on Yeonpyeong Island bears marks from North Korea's attack 

on Tuesday.

South Korea's military has doubled the number of its K-9 (Thunder) 155-mm self-propelled howitzers on this border island shaken by North Korea's deadly artillery attack last week, sources said Monday.

North Korea's artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island has raised concerns that the South does not have the firepower needed to effectively defend its five islands off the west coast against the North's attacks. 

Military officers are criticizing top brass of failing to bolster defensive capabilities in the West Sea even though the area has become a powder keg with repeated North Korean provocations around the Northern Limit Line.
Defense Minister Kim Tae-young told the National Assembly's Defense Committee on Wednesday troops and armaments on Yeonpyeong and Baeknyeong islands "were deployed to respond to the threat of an amphibious landing by North Korean forces. Now an artillery battle has become the new threat, so we're reassessing the need to strengthen defenses."
The minister practically admitted that the military failed to respond to a new type of North Korean threat in the West Sea. Kim pledged to boost the number of K-9 self-propelled howitzers on the island from six to 12 and replace existing 105 mm towed howitzers with 155 mm self-propelled howitzers, which have a longer range and are capable of counterattacks against North Korean artillery positions.

"When it comes to defending the West Sea, it's true that the focus of our defensive posture was on thwarting a North Korean naval clash or preventing infiltration," a military source said. "I don't think we fully anticipated an artillery attack."

North Korea has threatened to respond "mercilessly" to South Korean-U.S. military exercise that began Sunday.

In time with the start of the joint exercise, the North Korean military fired about 30 artillery shells from the Kaemori region north of Yeonpyeong Island into the West Sea as part of a military drill of its own. It also moved some of its 122 mm multiple rocket launchers and opened more camouflaged artillery gates to coastal positions.

The North moved SA-2 surface-to-air missiles with a range of about 30 km to the coast and placed surface-to-ship missiles with ranges between 83 and 100 km on launch pads on the western coast. Mig-23 fighters are on standby at Hwangju Air Base.

The North Korea Eighth Navy Combat Fleet in the West Sea and South Hwanghae Province are in a virtual state of war. 

South Korea Lawmakers grilled the minister over the relatively weak fighting power of troops in an area as strategically important as the West Sea. 

North Korea's Fourth Army Corps, which is entrusted with guarding the West Sea, is headed by General Kim Kyok-sik, who commands tens of thousands of troops. 

In contrast, South Korea has only around 5,000 marines on Baeknyeong and Yeonpyeong islands. It is unclear whether South Korean troops could successfully defend the five West Sea islands if North Korea were to stage a massive attack.
In fact the military has been implementing reforms that weaken defense capabilities in the five West Sea islands. Since the Roh Moo-hyun administration, efforts were made to cut the Marine presence in the West Sea and 3,200 marines stationed in the area were to be moved elsewhere while the 6th brigade was to be shrunk down to a regiment.

"To my knowledge, discussions are under way to scrap the Marine troop cut plan. Now that the situation has become more tense, troop levels in the West Sea would need to be increased," said a Marine officer.

The North has deployed around 1,000 artillery pieces capable of firing 130 mm and 170 mm shells on major islands and coastal positions on the West Sea. 

In contrast, the only South Korean weapons in the West Sea capable of directly hitting North Korea are K-9 self-propelled howitzers with a range of 40 km, and 155 mm towed howitzers with a range of less than 20 km. There was only six K-9 self-propelled howitzers each on Yeonpyeong and Baeknyeong islands, and 10 155 mm towed howitzers are stationed only on Baeknyeong Island.
 


The K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzer was developed as a replacement for the M109A2K, also known as the K55, self-propelled howitzers. 

In the late 1980s Republic of Korea Army drew up it's requirements for a new indigenous 155-mm tracked howitzer to meet the requirements of 21st century. Key operational requirements included a higher rate of fire, longer range, better accuracy and faster into and out of action times. 

Development of the K9 Thunder began in 1989. First prototypes were completed in 1994 and it entered service in 1999. Some sources claim that over 300 of these howitzers are already in service with the Republic of Korea Army and 200 more are ordered.

   The main armament of the K9 Thunder consists of 155-mm / L52 howitzer, fitted with automatic shell handling and ramming system. It is compatible with standard NATO 155-mm ammunition. Maximum range of fire is 30 km with standard HE projectile and 40 km with rocket-assisted projectile.

   The K9 Thunder has a maximum rate of fire of 6 rounds per minute and is capable of multiple-round simultaneous-impact firing. It is able to fire three rounds in 15 seconds, each in different trajectories, so that all of the shells arrive on target at the same time. Sustained rate of fire is 2 rounds per minute.

   The K9 Thunder is fitted with automatic fire control system with internal navigation system and automatic gun laying systems. It takes 30 seconds to prepare to fire at emplacement and 60 seconds from movement. Vehicle can shortly leave position to avoid counter-battery fire.

   The K9 has all-welded steel hull and turret with a maximum thickness of 19 mm. It provides protection from small arms and artillery shell fragments. Vehicle is also fitted with NBC protection system.

   This self-propelled howitzer has a crew of five, consisting of commander, gunner, assistant gunner, loader and driver.

   Vehicle is powered by German MTU MT 881 Ka-500 diesel engine, developing 1 000 horsepower. Transmission of the K9 Thunder is a further development of that installed on the M1 Abrams main battle tank. The K9 is fitted with a hydropneumatic suspension.

   The K9 Thunder is resupplied form the K10 ammunition resupply vehicle. It is based on the K9 chassis. The reloading process is fully automated and can be performed without exposing the crew under enemy fire or in the contaminated areas.

Variants:

   K10 ammunition resupply vehicle

   T-155 Firtina, Turkish self-propelled howitzer with subsystems of the K9 Thunder

U.S. and South Korea live-fire drills in Yellow Sea

 

Background:

Its Tuesday: North Korean Artillery Attack a South Korean Island







 Large-scale joint naval drills between South Korea and the United States off the Korean Peninsula's west coast went into their second day Monday, stepping up their warning against any further provocations by North Korea which has bristled over the maneuvers.

Led by the USS George Washington, the allies started the four-day drills Sunday in the wake of the North's deadly artillery attack on an inhabited South Korean island that killed four South Koreans, including two marines.

North Korea alleges that South Korea incited the attacks when shells from a South Korean drill landed in North Korean waters during their annual Hoguk military drill. North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency has verbally condemned South Korea and the United States for rousing this predicament. 

China may be criticizing North Korea privately for its November 23rd artillery attack on a South Korean town (Yeonpyeong Island), but it is publically chastising South Korea and the U.S. for conducting naval training exercises off the west coast of Korea, in international waters.

This sort of thing has been a favorite communist diplomatic ploy for over half a century.

It goes like this, the communists concentrate on building up their military forces, but keep details secret and insist they are all for peace. But at the same time, democracies, which have a free media, are criticized for the size and disposition of their armed forces, and for holding training exercises (which the communist nations cannot afford as many of).

If the democracies make the same accusations, the communist states deny everything and insist that it's none of your business. As absurd as this sounds, it's what's been going on for decades. This drill has become part of the media landscape and isn't really noticed. But occasionally it gets violent.

In the 1950s and 60s, Russia and North Korea would attack American intelligence ships and aircraft outside their air space or coastal waters (as recognized by international law) for "spying." As recently as 2001, a U.S. Navy recon aircraft was hit, and damaged, over international waters, by a Chinese fighter. China has more recently ordered state owned fishing vessels to deliberately get in the way of American and Japanese warships who were getting too close to China, despite being in international waters. It's the old "what's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable" ploy taken to a deadly extreme.

What the North Koreans are saying to South Korea is "give us more food and oil or we will keep attacking you in the name of self-defense". North Korea is starving again, and the leadership (representing about ten percent of the population that are well fed) need help and don't want to risk their control of North Korea to get it. Meanwhile, South Korea and Japan are fed up with over a decade of North Korean extortion and are no longer willing to provide free food to North Korea unless the nuclear weapons program is shut down. North Korea refuses to consider this, and has come up with a new tactic; fatal warning shots. Over half of South Korea's population (and more than a third of its GDP) is within range of thousands of North Korean 170mm guns (range of 50 kilometers) and 240 mm multiple rocket launchers (range of 45 kilometers).

Actually, North Korea has hundreds of ballistic missiles capable of hitting anywhere in South Korea. What if North Korea demands that free food and oil shipments resume, or more South Korea towns (or neighborhoods in cities) will be hit? What's South Korea going to do, when North Korea threatens to launch a major offensive if the south fights back and tries to destroy North Korea guns, rockets and ballistic missiles?

Because North Korea has the ability to do major damage to the southern capital (where half the population and a quarter of the GDP are), the South Koreans have more to lose than the northerners. Sprawling Seoul is 40-50 kilometers from the North Korea border. The city alone is 600 square kilometers, and the suburbs even larger. There are over 17,000 people per square kilometer (45,000 per square mile) in the city. The southerners know the north has nothing to lose, are desperate and heavily armed. What do you do?

Last March, a North Korean submarine torpedoed and sank a South Korean corvette (killing 46 sailors), in South Korean waters. North Korea denied that it was responsible (although the attacks was played in the north as very much a North Korean military operation). The north noted that the south did not retaliate.

Many South Koreans are now demanding a military response, but the majority of southerners will do almost anything to avoid a major war. Over the last decade, southerners have become less tolerant of northern extortion tactics, and have cut off most aid. So the north has done what any criminal gang would do, it has sent a message. The question is, do you call in the cops, or give in?

In this case, it's uncertain if the "cops" (U.S. and South Korea armed forces) can do anything that will work. Military commanders point out that the North Korean military is not invincible, and is vulnerable. Nearly two decades of food shortages, and economic collapse up north have had an effect on the military. North Korean troops, who grew up during the first rounds of famine in the 1990s, are noticeably shorter than the previous generation. There's not enough money to train, or maintain the vast North Korea arsenal of vehicles, weapons and other equipment. There's lots of evidence of this, from satellite photos, electronic chatter, and the thousands of North Korean refugees who have made it to South Korea in the last few years (and many more who made it to China, and can be reached by journalists, and intelligence agencies.)

But the North Korean leadership knows this as well. Without massive aid, the northern military will continue to rot, and the North Korean people will become more unruly. Already, anti-government graffiti is showing up in the north. This was unheard of until recently. The security agencies up there are becoming corrupt, as a result of the shortages, and the creation of a limited market economy to try and prevent more widespread starvation and privation. Many in the north, especially in the ruling Kim family, would rather go out with a bang, rather than a whimper (or a firing squad). The U.S. says it will not reward bad behavior, but South Korea and Japan, being within range of North Korean weapons, are not so sure of that approach.

The South Korean military has a third fewer troops in uniform than the north, but they are better armed and trained. However, North Korea has not been at war since 1953, and South Korea since the late 1960s (when they had troops in Vietnam). Armed forces tend to get stiff and inefficient in peacetime. But both nations have most of their troops lined up along the mountainous border (the DMZ, or demilitarized zone). There are plenty of fortifications, and plans for the south to keep the northerners out.

The basic drill has always been that the north would try to invade again (as it did in 1950), with the southerners and their American allies defending. Based on historical experience, the north could do a lot of damage, but not win. The north has chemical weapons, and it is feared they would use them. The north also, technically, has nuclear weapons. But based on two tests of their nukes, it is not believed they have a weapon that could be delivered. The north could make the big push, but the southerners and their American allies would eventually prevail. The invasion is a threat, not a solution.

Artillery firing was again heard on Yeonpyeong Island today, but this time, no shells or rockets fell on the island. North Korean artillery was practicing again, within its own territory. You'll be hearing a lot more North Korean artillery practice, because they have large stocks of aging munitions that must either be fired or disposed of because the stuff is too dangerous to use.

After a few decades, the chemical components of rockets and artillery shells decompose and become unreliable. But North Korea can't fire all this stuff, since each time you fire a shell it damages the barrel, which must be replaced, in some cases, after only a few hundred shells are fired. It's similar for rocket launchers, with heat of the rockets causing some damage to the launch tubes and the launcher (or launch vehicle) in general. The north cannot afford replacements. North Korea's poverty since 1991 has meant it could not afford to replace its older munitions like it used to in the past, and there's a lot more old stuff to worry about. Fuel shortages mean that the old munitions can't even be trucked to coast and dumped at sea, or buried on land (to provide a hazard for over a century). So a lot of these increasingly unstable ammo just rots in storage bunkers.

From GEN Walter L. Sharp, UNC/CFC/USFK Commander

"We have and will continue to closely monitor the situation following the firing into the Northwest Islands.  There have been no additional North Korean attacks overnight. Please continue with your normal activities. I will periodically update you throughout the upcoming days. 

I am proud of the ROK military for their prompt response in protecting their citizens on Yeongpyeong-Do and have full confidence in the ROK and U.S. military forces who stand ready to deter aggression and defend the Republic of Korea."

-- GEN Walter L. Sharp, UNC/CFC/USFK Commander

Its Tuesday: North Korean Artillery Attack a South Korean Island

North Korea and South Korea have traded artillery fire across the disputed Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the Yellow Sea to the west of the peninsula. 

Though details are still sketchy, South Korean news reports indicate that around 2.34pm local time (7.34am GMT), North Korean artillery shells began landing in the waters around Yeonpyeongdo, one of the South Korean-controlled islands just south of the NLL. 
 

North Korea has reportedly fired as many as 200 rounds, some of which struck the island, Two South Korean marines were killed and 17 others injured, as well as three civilians, damaging buildings and setting fire to a mountainside.

South Korea responded by firing some 80 shells of its own toward North Korea, dispatching F-16 fighter jets to the area and raising the military alert to its highest level.

The islands were the scene of three skirmishes between the navies of North and South Korea in 1999, 2002 and most recently in 2009 when a North Korean patrol ship was set on fire by South Korean gunfire.

South Korean President Lee Myung Bak has convened an emergency Cabinet meeting, and Seoul is determining whether to evacuate South Koreans working at inter-Korean facilities in North Korea. 

The barrage from North Korea was continuing at 4 p.m. Military activity appears to be ongoing at this point, and the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff are meeting on the issue. No doubt North Korea’s leadership is also convening.

The North Korean attack comes as South Korea’s annual Hoguk military exercises are under way. The exercises — set to last nine days and including as many as 70,000 personnel from all branches of the South Korean military — span from sites in the Yellow Sea including Yeonpyeongdo to Seoul and other areas on the peninsula itself.

Low-level border skirmishes across the demilitarized zone and particularly the NLL are not uncommon even at the scale of artillery fire. 

 
In March, the South Korean naval corvette ChonAn was sunk in the area by what is broadly suspected to have been a North Korean torpedo, taking tensions to a peak in recent years. 
 
Nov. 22 also saw South Korean rhetoric about accepting the return of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the peninsula, though the United States said it has no plans at present to support such a redeployment. 


While the South Korean reprisals, both artillery fire in response by self-propelled K-9 artillery and the scrambling of aircraft, thus far appear perfectly consistent with South Korean standard operating procedures, the sustained shelling of a populated island by North Korea would mark a deliberate and noteworthy escalation.

The incident comes amid renewed talk of North Korea’s nuclear program, including revelations of an active uranium-enrichment program, and amid rumors of North Korean preparations for another nuclear test. 

 
With the ongoing leadership transition in North Korea, there have been rumors of discontent within the military, and the current actions may reflect miscommunications or worse within the North’s command-and-control structure, or disagreements within the North Korean leadership.

If its Friday, the North and South are exchange fire on Korean DMZ

Just FYI:

I spent most of my time, When I was in South Korea in the Gangwon province.

North Korean and South Korean military units exchanged gunfire near their border Friday.

No injuries were reported from the incident, which happened in a remote area northeast of Seoul in mountainous Gangwon province.

The shooting happened at 5:26 p.m. 

The exchange happened after North Korean forces fired two shots at a South Korean military guard post near the border in Hwacheon, South Korea, about 73 miles (118 km) northeast of Seoul, citing an official at the South Korea Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The incident occurred near the strategic town of Chorwon, which was the scene of heavy fighting during the 1950-53 Korean War.

The demilitarized zone at the location of the shooting is 1.3 kilometers (0.8 miles) wide.


North Korea has requested record shipments of rice and fertilizer in exchange for concessions on reuniting families separated by the war, which ended in a truce, but without a formal peace treaty.

There were fatal naval clashes there in 1999 and 2002. In March this year, the sinking of a South Korean vessel killed 26 in what a South Korean and international investigatory team concluded was a North Korean torpedo attack.

The prickly relationship between the countries since the 1950-53 Korean War has had periodic conciliatory moves and flare-ups.

North Korea continues to deny involvement. 

While there are occasional shooting incidents across the demilitarized zones, the tensest flashpoint on the peninsula in recent years has been the disputed maritime border in the Yellow Sea.

 


The South Korean troops fired back! And that a GOOD thing!

Retired Senior Government Officials speaking out in China

While China prominently proclaims the peaceful intentions behind its growing military buildup, within the military the rhetoric is far more aggressive. 

The United States is the main foe among officers, and they continue to churn out books and articles about how America can be defeated. Lesser foes include Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam and South Korea. But it's understood, among Chinese officers, that if the mighty Americans can be brought to heel, all other local powers will become much easier to handle.
 
Meanwhile, the winds of political change can be detected within China. A group of 23 retired senior government officials and academics openly called for more democracy in China, and authoritarian rule. These old guys can get away with this kind of open talk because they are old, retired, and still have many friends within the government. The real target of the letter was the hard-liners in the government who pay more attention to maintaining the communist police state, than to improving the well-being of the average Chinese. The hard-liners used to include a lot of officials who still believed in communism, but there are few of those left, and not enough of them for anyone to bother with anymore. 

The hard-liners tend to ally themselves with corrupt officials (nearly everyone in the ruling elite is at least a little dirty) to maintain the police state. But many senior officials actually back more democracy, and accountability to the people.

The United States sees China as having a natural interest in protecting its access to the sea (for importing raw materials and exporting manufactured goods). This justifies the large amounts of money the Chinese are pouring into building up their fleet. This is very new for China, which has not been a major naval power for over 600 years. What alarms the Americans is how the U.S. is being demonized by the Chinese military leadership. 

 Chinese politicians speak in more friendly terms, while tolerating the bellicose attitudes of their generals and admirals. The politicians refrain from reining in the aggressive attitudes of their military commanders. China experts counsel that the rants from the military are mainly to build morale within the ranks, and make it easier for the politicians to reduce corruption in the armed forces. This corruption is an old, old problem in China. 

It's been reduced in the last two decades, but is still there, in a big way. By whipping up this fervor for dealing with a major war, it becomes unpatriotic (for many, but not all, officers) to steal and connive. But to outsiders, it looks like the Chinese are preparing for something ominous. This is reinforced by the increasingly aggressive Chinese attitudes towards disputes with its neighbors over uninhabited islands (often just rock outcroppings only visible at low tide). Outright possession of these islets gives the owner possession of nearby oil or natural gas deposits. Something worth fighting for, and that's what worries neighbors when it comes to China's growing naval strength.

South Korean and Australian military officials believe China has recently made a major effort to steal secret data from them via the Internet. The hacking attacks try hard to hide their origins, but better forensic tools make it easier to find and follow tracks. The Chinese Internet based espionage efforts have been growing more frequent and aggressive over the last decade. As the evidence piles up, China is having a more difficult time trying to hide behind blanket denials.

China is aggressively offering inexpensive weapons and military training services to African nations. This would give China more influence within African armed forces, and better knowledge of what makes them tick. This can be useful when there are embarrassing incidents. Recently, in Zambia, two Chinese mine officials opened fire with assault rifles, when confronted by workers angry about the way they were mistreated. Two workers were wounded and the rest dispersed. The Zambian government wants to prosecute the two Chinese gunmen, while China wants to avoid any damage to Chinese economic interests in Zambia and Africa. China has also been approaching Western nations for greater military cooperation. The latest targets were Poland and Italy.

Not wanting to incur the wrath of China, Vietnam made it clear that it will not lease Cam Rahn Bay to Russia, or any other foreigners. From 1979-2002, Russia did lease access, but left in a dispute over how much they should pay. Russia recently offered to return, and China was not pleased. Despite centuries of tension, China is currently a major trading partner with neighboring Vietnam. While Vietnam has been deferential to China, most other neighbors of China (including India) are increasingly cooperating in efforts to form a de facto military and political alliance against China. If this ever becomes a formal alliance (an eastern NATO, against the eastern superpower), China will not be pleased.

China now has military alliances that allow it to fly combat aircraft all the way to Europe. A joint air force training exercise in Turkey last month had Chinese jet fighters flying through the air space of two allies, Pakistan and Iran, to new ally Turkey.

The U.S. has approached China about negotiating who would be allowed to do what in North Korea once the current North Korean government collapsed. Everyone in the region agrees that it's not a matter of if, but when, the North Korean dictatorship will collapse. South Korea considers it their responsibility to move in and clean up the mess. China has openly discussed other ideas, not involving South Korea. The proposed U.S. talks would seek to work out an arrangement that would not risk another major war in the area.

The government made a major effort to keep the recent news of imprisoned 1989 demonstration leader Liu Xiaobo winning the Nobel Peace Prize. Censors worked overtime to keep the news off all forms of media (especially cell phones and the Internet). It got through anyway, and the extent of the censorship effort made the government look weak and afraid of what the 1989 pro-democracy demonstrations represented.

In the northwest, China continues to have problems with its Moslem minority. As mainstream (Han) Chinese continue to move into these remote areas, the locals, who are often Moslem, increasingly respond with violence. Last month, for example, over a thousand northwestern Moslems (not Turkic Uighurs, but Hui, a catchall term for dozens of Moslem ethnic groups in the area) rioted and tried to destroy a newly built (by Han, largely for Han) nightclub. The locals objected to the booze and prostitution such places featured.

South Korea Amps Up ASW

 After losing the corvette Cheonan to a North Korean submarine earlier this year, South Korea is, understandably, working hard to increase its ASW  (Anti-Submarine Warfare) capabilities. 

Short term, it has equipped 30 fast patrol boats with commercial sonar (used for detecting fish, but also capable to detecting subs in shallow coastal waters) and installed improved military sonars on over a dozen larger warships. 

The navy is also buying a dozen fast rigid inflatable boats, equipped with sonar, for searching coastal waters for the smaller North Korean subs. P-3C anti-submarine aircraft are now allowed to operate closer to the Northern Limit Line (the unofficial maritime border between north and south Korea.)


Longer term a new ASW training areas are being built on each coast over the next two year. These areas will have electronic sensors to score how well ships perform in their hunt for submerged targets. Already underway are building programs to construct 20 new frigates and six more submarines. There are also plans to built a 15,000 ton ASW carrier (with six ASW helicopters). 

The navy is investigating obtaining more advanced American helicopter ASW gear. Finally, ASW training exercises will be held with American ships annually (once a year off each coast). New communications gear is being installed in South Korea warships, to make it easier for them to exchange ASW data with their American counterparts.

South Korea and United States to hold further naval drills

South Korea and United States to hold further joint anti-submarine exercises in another show of force against North Korea, officials said Friday, as Pyongyang renewed threats against the drills.

The exercises will be the second in a series of joint maneuvers the allies planned to conduct in response to the deadly sinking of a South Korean warship in March that they blame on the North. The two sides staged large-scale joint naval drills in July followed by South Korea's own naval drills last month.

The drills, set to run from Sunday through Thursday off the Korean peninsula's west coast, will involve about 17,000 U.S. and South Korean troops, seven ships and two submarines as well as aircraft, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff and the U.S. military in Seoul.

The exercises are "designed to send a clear message of deterrence to North Korea, while improving overall alliance anti-submarine warfare capabilities," the U.S. military in Seoul said in a statement.

The announcement of the planned drills comes as China reportedly holds live-ammunition exercises in the Yellow Sea.

An international team of investigators concluded in May that a North Korean torpedo sank the 1,200-ton South Korean warship Cheonan in late March near the Koreas' western maritime border, killing 46 South Korean sailors.

North Korea, which denies any involvement in the sinking, has threatened to retaliate against South Korea and the U.S. over the drills, which Pyongyang sees as a rehearsal for an invasion.

The U.S. keeps 28,500 troops in South Korea in what it says is a deterrent against any possible aggression from North Korea and says it has no intention of invading the North.

"Our military and people will deal a merciless blow if warmongers stage reckless provocation," North Korea's government-run website, Uriminzokkiri, said in a commentary Friday.

North Korea often makes such threats, though the joint maneuvers in July and South Korea's independent exercises took place without incident.

The two Koreas officially remain at war because the 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty.

South Korean and U.S. troops recalled that war Friday, dressing in period uniforms to re-enact a crucial battle, including the blowing up of a bridge. The battle took place in 1950 in a narrow area known as the Pusan Perimeter. U.S. and South Korean troops mounted a desperate defense against advancing North Korean soldiers that was crucial in turning the tide of the war.

Nutty North Korea confirms Chinese among detained fishermen

Background: Nutty North Korea silent on fate of South Korean fishing boat crew

North Korea today confirmed it seized a South Korean fishing boat nearly two weeks ago, according to the Yonhap and Xinhua news agencies.

The 41-ton boat called 'Daeseung 55' went missing on August 8 while en-route to a joint fishing area between North and South Korea off the coast of the Korean Peninsula. It was carrying four South Korean and three Chinese crew members.

The North Korean state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Thursday for the first time confirmed that it had seized the ship, but said it was seized on August 10 and not August 8.

"According to our initial investigation, the ship was carrying four South Korean and three Chinese crewmembers, and their testimonies have shown that their ship had violated our exclusive economic zone," the KCNA report said, according to Yonhap.

Tensions between the two Koreas are continuing to rise since a March attack against a South Korean ship, which killed dozens of sailors. A South Korean-led international investigation concluded that North Korea was behind the attack, but North Korea continues to deny any involvement.

In June, Beijing took a public swipe at Pyongyang after North Korean border guards shot and killed three Chinese suspected of smuggling and wounded a fourth. North Korea apologized and told China it would punish those responsible.

On August 9, North Korea fired at least 100 rounds of artillery into its side of the Yellow Sea. It happened just after the end of U.S.-South Korean naval drills in a show of force against Pyongyang, a move that was strongly condemned by North Korea on numerous occasions.

On Wednesday, a spokesman for North Korea's Foreign Ministry said the drills were 'dangerous provocations to ignite a nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula.'

"These war maneuvers are a wanton violation of the Armistice Agreement and diametrically run counter to the presidential statement of the UNSC dated July 9, 2010 which calls for settling the pending issues on the Korean Peninsula through dialogue and negotiations in a peaceful manner," the spokesman said.

"Such ceaseless military provocations being perpetrated in utter disregard of the concern of the international community about the tensions running high in the Korean Peninsula and the region go to clearly prove that the U.S. is, indeed, the arch criminal threatening and wrecking the global peace and security. The warmongers are so reckless as to dig their own graves," he added.

The spokesman said North Korea is ready for both dialogue and war and said it has means and methods to defend itself. "

The U.S. and South Korea are currently holding a joint military exercise, the second inside a month, angering both Pyongyang and China. They also plan to conduct an anti-submarine warfare exercise next month, the Pentagon said on Wednesday.

Nutty North Korea Unveils New Battle Tank

USFK Intelligence authorities are analyzing footage of a new battle tank shown on North Korean state TV over the weekend. So far the existence of the "Pokpung" (Storm) had only been a rumor.

A USFK source on Monday said the Pokpung appears to be an improved version of the North Korean Army's previous model "Chonma" (Flying Horse) in terms of firepower and maneuverability.

The Pokpung tank is also known as the M-2002, as it is presumed to have been rolled out in 2002.
Armed with a 125 mm gun, the Pokpung appears to be a drastically improved version of the former Soviet Union's T-90 tank.

It seems to be more heavily armed with a 14.5 mm KPV anti-aircraft machine gun, which is more powerful than the 12.7 mm machine gun mounted on older tanks. Also equipped with a laser range finder and an infrared searchlight, the tank is presumed to have a higher accuracy as it has a more modern fire control system than earlier models.
The Pokpung has a welded hull and turret. Turret has a large wedge-shaped armor module, bolted onto the front for improved protection. A large turret bustle is built at the rear, which possibly contains crew gear or additional ammunition. This MBT possibly might be fitted with explosive reactive armor kit. However this tank looses in term of protection to most current MBTs.

This tank is powered by a turbocharged diesel engine, developing ~ 750 hp. The road wheels and drive sprockets appears to be T-90 components.

Vehicle can be fitted with additional fuel tanks for expended range.

It is believed that this tank has a crew of 4, including commander, gunner, loader and driver.

The North Korean tank was developed by Ryu Kyong-su Tank Factory in Shinhung, South Hamgyong province. The tank's performance tests were learned to have taken place near Pyongyang on February 16 in commemoration of Kim Jong-il's 60th birthday.

The designation of the latest North Korean tank has yet to be confirmed. Since Pyongyang named the tank it developed in 1985 "M-1985", some experts speculate that it may designate the latest one T-2002.

North Korea would not be the first Asian country to have a variant of the T-90. As of mid-2000 India planned to acquire T-90 tanks, based on field trials that had already been completed. Russia had agreed to expedite the delivery at India's request.

There had been previous signs that North Korea was working to develop this tank. Last August, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, during a trip to Russia, visited Omsk, about 2,250 kilometers east of Moscow, regarded as the center of Russia's defense manufacturing industry. There he toured the giant TransMash defense plant, which produces T-80 and T-90 tanks. It was reported then that North Korea wanted to purchase an upgraded model of a T-90 tank recently developed by the company as part of its efforts to modernize its conventional weapons.

North Korea succeeded in developing a new main battle tank, the capabilities of which are nearly identical to those of the T-90 tank Russia developed in the early 1990s

North Korea's development of the tank is consistent with its emphasis on expanding ground-force mobility. North Korea's army now has nearly 4,000 tanks, including one it developed based on the Russian T-80, a sample of which it brought in from Afghanistan in the early 1990s, the most advanced type at that time. Among the country's tanks are some 800 T-62s, 275 T-59s, -55s and -54s, and 250 T-34s.

This is hardly the first time that North Korea has used Russia as a role model in terms of weapons production. Beginning in the late 1970s, North Korea began to produce a modified version of the 115mm-gunned T-62 tank, which was the Soviet army's main battle tank in the 1960s.

Over the years it has become clear that North Korea has made considerable modifications to the basic Soviet and Chinese designs in its own production.

While the Russians have developed export variants of the T-90, the T-90S (or "C" in Cyrillic) and the T-90SK command variant, it is unclear whether either of them was made available to North Korea as it developed its model.

The Russian T-90 has a 125mm main gun. It can also fire a laser-guided missile with a hollow-charge warhead that is effective against both armored targets and low-flying helicopters. The missile gives the T-90 the ability to engage other vehicles and helicopters before they can engage the T-90. The computerized fire control system and laser rangefinder, coupled with a gunner's thermal sight, permits the T-90 to engage targets while on the move at speeds of 45-65km/h, and at night.

The T-90 compares favorably to its Western counterparts such as the US M1 Abrams, German Leopard-2, British Challenger-2, and French LeClerc. It weights less, its main gun is bigger, it carries a guided weapon, the range of its night sight is longer, and it has jammers that disrupt the targeting systems of anti-tank missiles. However, as this is a first-generation system it is probably not as capable as comparable Western systems.

The tank is fitted with precision laying equipment and an automatic loader to guarantee a high rate of gunfire. Secondary armament includes a coaxial 7.62mm PKT machine gun and 12.7mm machine-gun mount for air and ground targets. It also features a new generation of armor on its hull and turret.

The North Korean Army has about 3,900 tanks, much more than the South Korean Army's 2,300, but they are believed to perform much more poorly.

Entered service late 1990s
Crew 4 men
Dimensions and weight
Weight ~ 44 t
Length (gun forward) ?
Hull length ?
Width ?
Height ?
Armament
Main gun 115-mm smoothbore
Machine guns 1 x 14.5-mm, 1 x 7.62-mm
Elevation range ?
Traverse range 360 degrees
Ammunition load
Main gun ~ 40 rounds
Machine guns 300 x 14.5, 1 500 x 7.62
Mobility
Engine diesel
Engine power ~ 750 hp
Maximum road speed 50 ~ 60 km/h
Range 400 ~ 500 km
Maneuverability
Gradient 60%
Side slope 40%
Vertical step ~ 0.9 m
Trench ~ 2.8 m
Fording ~ 1.4 m
Fording (with preparation) 5 m

Annual drill set to exercise U.S., S. Korean military leaders

Background: South Korea To Launch Theater Command by '09

U.S. and South Korean military leaders will train for the next few weeks to defend the South not with missiles, artillery or air power, but with keyboard strokes.

The annual Ulchi Freedom Guardian joint military exercise begins Monday on the Korean peninsula. The largely computer-based exercise will run through Aug. 26 and involve the leadership of virtually all U.S. military units in South Korea, along with South Korean troops and 3,000 American servicemembers brought into the country for the training.

“The focus will be on training service members while exercising senior leaders’ decision-making capabilities,” according to a U.S. Forces Korea news release.

Like the Exercise Key Resolve held every spring, Ulchi Freedom Guardian will be designed to prepare forces to respond “to any potential provocations.”

The United Nations Command alerted North Korean military officials about this month’s exercise at a meeting at the Demilitarized Zone in July.
Military officials said the annual exercise is not connected to the ongoing friction between North and South related to the March 26 sinking of the South Korean patrol ship Cheonan that killed 46 South Korean sailors. The North has denied any involvement in the sinking. However, an international team of investigators led by the South determined that a torpedo fired from a North Korean submarine was to blame.

South Korea and the U.S. have since taken a number of economic, symbolic and military steps to punish the North for its alleged actions.

Last month, the U.S. and South Korea staged the Invincible Spirit exercise in the Sea of Japan — which Koreans refer to as the East Sea — a four-day event that involved 20 ships, 200 aircraft and 8,000 servicemembers. The two militaries are scheduled to participate in a similar drill in the Yellow Sea sometime in the weeks ahead.

Last week, North Korea fired artillery rounds near the disputed maritime border between the two Koreas in response to five days of naval drills the South staged in the Yellow Sea, known as the West Sea to Koreans.

Until the sinking of the Cheonan, Ulchi Freedom Guardian was to be the first joint exercise led by a South Korean general — a critical benchmark as the South prepared to assume wartime command of its troops starting in 2012. Questions raised in the wake of the sinking prompted the two countries to postpone the transfer date to December 2015.

In the meantime, the top U.S. general in South Korea will maintain operational control of all forces in the country in the event of war, and USFK commander Gen. Walter Sharp – the man now in that position – will lead the Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise.